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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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16–7 on winners spread MAE 9.2 23 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Buffalo @ Georgia	+25.5	145.2	99%	49–100	✓
Oakland @ Cleveland State	+0.7	118.7	53%	75–92	✓
Charleston Southern @ North Alabama	+13.3	148.4	89%	69–86	✓
Grambling @ Delaware State	-6.1	143.0	29%	60–73	✗
UC Irvine @ Belmont	-6.1	154.3	29%	92–84	✓
Lipscomb @ Middle Tennessee	+0.1	143.2	50%	65–67	✓
UT Martin @ Morehead State	+1.9	144.4	57%	69–70	✓
LSU New Orleans @ Texas	+29.2	149.7	100%	62–98	✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Little Rock	+1.0	127.6	54%	56–60	✓
Bellarmine @ Wyoming	+12.2	146.7	87%	55–92	✓
Tennessee State @ Southern Indiana	+12.3	157.3	87%	75–77	✓
Tennessee Tech @ Lindenwood	+2.5	143.2	59%	79–73	✗
Eastern Illinois @ Southeast Missouri State	+8.0	141.0	77%	72–79	✓
South Dakota @ Utah Tech	-2.5	165.8	41%	87–92	✗
Chicago State @ Grand Canyon	+25.3	150.1	99%	51–74	✓
Long Beach State @ Pepperdine	+9.1	138.1	80%	79–76	✗
Merrimack @ Saint Mary's	+16.4	125.4	93%	68–73	✓
Valparaiso @ Western Michigan	+2.1	153.7	58%	76–73	✗
Houston Christian @ Texas A&M	+26.5	135.8	99%	45–77	✓
Norfolk State @ Grambling	-5.6	136.7	31%	76–70	✓
UIC @ Seattle U	+10.6	156.3	83%	79–68	✗
Rider @ Pennsylvania	+0.6	127.4	52%	66–79	✓
Delaware State @ Alabama State	+5.8	157.7	70%	83–80	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.