Why don't you get back into bed. "Reasons to be Cheerful, Part 3" - Ian Dury & the Blockheads
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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73–29 on winners spread MAE 10.9 102 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Delaware @ Saint Peter's +5.4 145.9 69% 64–72 ✓
Akron @ Yale +5.9 173.5 70% 58–74 ✓
Holy Cross @ Siena +6.6 134.2 73% 78–70 ✗
Longwood @ North Carolina Central +0.7 143.2 52% 82–67 ✗
App State @ North Texas +16.0 116.5 93% 64–68 ✓
St. John's @ Providence -4.2 143.0 35% 72–70 ✓
Cincinnati @ Dayton -2.7 137.2 40% 66–59 ✓
Jackson State @ UTEP +17.4 143.9 94% 61–67 ✓
Florida A&M @ BYU +23.1 148.1 98% 57–103 ✓
Southern @ Loyola Marymount +0.7 130.6 52% 73–89 ✓
Duke @ Georgia Tech -19.0 137.6 4% 82–56 ✓
North Florida @ Florida +22.4 177.4 98% 45–99 ✓
Marquette @ Xavier -4.1 155.0 36% 72–70 ✓
UConn @ Butler -5.0 146.7 33% 78–74 ✓
South Carolina State @ Northern Kentucky +3.2 132.1 61% 47–58 ✓
SMU @ Boston College -10.4 150.4 17% 103–77 ✓
Vermont @ Dartmouth +0.8 132.4 53% 54–84 ✓
Princeton @ Rutgers +5.1 160.0 68% 83–82 ✗
Penn State @ Drexel -11.0 146.5 16% 75–64 ✓
Chattanooga @ Indiana +17.5 155.0 94% 65–74 ✓
Syracuse @ Maryland +19.4 159.2 96% 60–87 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Saint Joseph's +4.1 135.9 64% 62–82 ✓
Mississippi State @ Memphis +0.9 159.5 53% 79–66 ✗
Fairfield @ Monmouth +4.8 148.0 67% 74–88 ✓
UMBC @ Marist +5.8 149.0 70% 73–76 ✓
Maine @ Stony Brook -5.2 139.6 32% 72–74 ✗
Saint Francis @ Robert Morris +9.1 140.3 80% 77–90 ✓
Navy @ Coppin State -4.8 145.8 33% 60–68 ✗
Lehigh @ Long Island University +1.3 147.4 55% 60–59 ✗
Hampton @ Loyola Maryland +3.4 135.8 62% 76–68 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Central Connecticut +9.3 129.8 80% 80–84 ✓
Manhattan @ Presbyterian +5.8 153.9 70% 86–81 ✗
Niagara @ St. Bonaventure +20.3 129.4 97% 52–71 ✓
Youngstown State @ South Carolina Upstate -5.3 155.2 32% 72–64 ✓
Sam Houston @ Pittsburgh +21.1 158.9 97% 78–110 ✓
Lamar @ Texas Tech +16.4 137.3 93% 57–101 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Houston +24.1 137.0 99% 51–87 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Michigan State +14.1 167.0 90% 69–86 ✓
Wake Forest @ Clemson +15.9 129.1 93% 62–73 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Eastern Kentucky +2.0 151.1 57% 91–80 ✗
Louisville @ Florida State +2.1 147.8 57% 90–76 ✗
Boston University @ UMass Lowell +7.8 149.3 76% 71–83 ✓
Chicago State @ Cal State Northridge +26.1 148.0 99% 57–81 ✓
Wright State @ Eastern Michigan -5.4 148.3 31% 82–86 ✗
St. Thomas @ Bowling Green -3.7 158.1 37% 93–68 ✓
Evansville @ Ball State +5.7 139.3 70% 43–80 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Kansas City -5.0 137.3 33% 66–73 ✗
High Point @ Southern Illinois +2.4 147.1 59% 94–81 ✗
Mercer @ Winthrop +8.8 163.5 79% 97–102 ✓
UNC Asheville @ UNC Wilmington +6.6 148.7 73% 74–85 ✓
UT Arlington @ Liberty +12.3 144.7 87% 56–79 ✓
UAlbany @ Fordham +5.6 154.5 69% 83–87 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Miami +12.8 155.9 88% 78–74 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Minnesota +12.7 141.1 88% 60–74 ✓
James Madison @ South Alabama +1.1 137.5 54% 49–77 ✓
Georgia State @ Troy +14.0 143.5 90% 57–77 ✓
Canisius @ Bradley +24.7 148.2 99% 59–92 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Arkansas +28.7 157.9 100% 67–95 ✓
UC Irvine @ Duquesne -11.4 129.6 15% 54–70 ✗
North Carolina @ UCLA +5.0 150.3 67% 76–74 ✗
UC Davis @ Pepperdine +0.3 143.7 51% 46–85 ✓
UC Riverside @ UNLV +7.2 143.7 74% 53–66 ✓
East Texas A&M @ South Florida +9.4 144.2 80% 62–88 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ East Carolina +5.6 146.5 69% 84–79 ✗
Mississippi Valley State @ Tulsa +21.2 138.9 97% 48–93 ✓
Austin Peay @ Vanderbilt +21.7 139.9 98% 55–85 ✓
Furman @ Harvard -4.1 129.9 36% 77–63 ✓
Marshall @ Southern Miss -3.5 146.3 38% 66–68 ✗
Old Dominion @ UL Monroe +7.3 141.8 75% 80–75 ✗
Coastal Carolina @ Arkansas State +11.8 135.1 86% 67–97 ✓
Bellarmine @ Colorado +24.9 155.0 99% 55–79 ✓
Air Force @ Boise State +19.3 135.7 96% 59–77 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Texas State +11.2 146.7 85% 61–83 ✓
Tennessee State @ Morehead State +2.9 157.9 60% 68–74 ✓
Lafayette @ Portland -3.0 144.9 39% 64–74 ✗
Texas Southern @ Abilene Christian +10.1 146.6 82% 65–69 ✓
Central Michigan @ Arizona +21.6 152.1 98% 41–94 ✓
Samford @ Alabama A&M -20.6 168.2 3% 97–90 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Southern Utah +8.2 150.8 77% 83–75 ✗
Idaho @ Pacific +4.8 143.3 67% 95–72 ✗
Washington State @ Northern Iowa +1.4 152.2 55% 76–68 ✗
DePaul @ Northwestern +5.9 137.6 70% 64–84 ✓
Arizona State @ Massachusetts -14.6 153.8 9% 78–62 ✓
Villanova @ Creighton +0.8 151.9 53% 79–86 ✓
Purdue @ Auburn +13.1 154.0 88% 69–87 ✓
UT Martin @ Southern Indiana +8.2 141.2 77% 77–46 ✗
Western Illinois @ Lindenwood +4.6 133.9 66% 65–71 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Southeast Missouri State +1.4 138.0 55% 64–80 ✓
Queens University @ Ole Miss +24.7 149.6 99% 62–80 ✓
South Dakota @ Santa Clara +14.2 175.1 90% 81–98 ✓
Colorado State @ Nevada +13.3 143.5 89% 66–64 ✗
California Baptist @ Fresno State +0.2 155.1 51% 86–69 ✗
Bethune-Cookman @ Davidson +13.2 143.2 89% 63–76 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Denver -5.1 158.8 32% 82–75 ✓
Kentucky @ Ohio State -4.7 163.9 34% 65–85 ✗
Green Bay @ Drake +23.0 141.3 98% 62–72 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Florida International +10.3 143.6 83% 69–75 ✓
Montana @ San Francisco +18.3 145.5 95% 67–71 ✓
VMI @ Richmond +7.2 144.0 74% 71–78 ✓
Jacksonville @ UCF +10.5 148.6 83% 66–86 ✓
Utah @ Iowa -1.0 162.8 47% 88–95 ✗
Temple @ Rhode Island +5.5 153.5 69% 79–85 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.