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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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37–20 on winners spread MAE 8.2 57 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Memphis @ Temple	-7.6	156.6	24%	81–88	✗
Michigan @ Minnesota	-13.3	143.0	11%	81–84	✗
High Point @ Longwood	-3.0	151.2	39%	80–82	✗
Binghamton @ Vermont	+6.8	125.0	73%	64–72	✓
Marshall @ James Madison	+6.0	145.2	71%	64–67	✓
Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina	+5.2	141.5	68%	88–87	✗
App State @ Old Dominion	-6.5	133.2	28%	62–43	✓
Charleston @ Campbell	-3.2	149.8	39%	67–61	✓
Elon @ Drexel	+0.5	130.0	52%	65–54	✗
William & Mary @ Hampton	+1.3	152.5	55%	67–64	✗
Monmouth @ North Carolina A&T	+1.8	153.2	56%	72–63	✗
Hofstra @ Towson	+3.0	121.8	61%	60–65	✓
Northeastern @ UNC Wilmington	+6.8	141.8	73%	72–80	✓
Central Arkansas @ North Florida	+12.9	167.2	88%	80–92	✓
Queens University @ Stetson	-6.9	151.9	26%	95–60	✓
North Alabama @ Jacksonville	+0.7	144.6	53%	60–64	✓
Merrimack @ Quinnipiac	+2.8	131.2	60%	76–81	✓
Marist @ Saint Peter's	+2.5	119.0	59%	56–51	✗
Niagara @ Fairfield	+1.4	142.3	55%	66–70	✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Rider	-4.3	136.3	35%	60–66	✗
Sacred Heart @ Siena	+3.5	146.6	62%	75–93	✓
Canisius @ Iona	+11.5	144.4	85%	61–82	✓
Sam Houston @ Kennesaw State	+3.5	166.3	63%	69–75	✓
Louisiana Tech @ Jacksonville State	+2.7	143.8	60%	61–63	✓
New Mexico State @ Florida International	-2.1	140.3	42%	59–52	✓
Western Illinois @ Morehead State	+7.1	136.0	74%	47–51	✓
Sacramento State @ Northern Arizona	+10.4	131.3	83%	53–77	✓
Portland State @ Northern Colorado	+11.9	159.5	86%	69–72	✓
Louisiana @ Arkansas State	+20.9	149.6	97%	63–83	✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Austin Peay	-1.6	137.3	44%	90–97	✗
Utah Valley @ UT Arlington	-0.3	146.8	49%	85–83	✓
California Baptist @ Tarleton State	-5.4	133.3	31%	57–67	✗
North Dakota @ South Dakota State	+13.6	158.5	89%	73–109	✓
Oral Roberts @ South Dakota	+11.8	181.3	86%	82–92	✓
Kansas City @ North Dakota State	+12.0	142.6	86%	64–71	✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Tennessee State	-0.2	140.8	49%	87–80	✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Tennessee Tech	+3.1	143.1	61%	77–70	✗
Lindenwood @ Southern Indiana	+2.6	140.1	59%	73–80	✓
Eastern Illinois @ UT Martin	+9.4	138.4	80%	63–68	✓
Maryland @ Northwestern	-3.7	141.3	37%	74–76	✗
Rutgers @ Nebraska	+9.8	149.3	81%	85–82	✗
Montana State @ Idaho State	+2.7	138.1	60%	67–70	✓
Montana @ Weber State	+2.8	149.3	60%	63–59	✗
Abilene Christian @ Grand Canyon	+12.0	143.6	86%	58–88	✓
UTEP @ Liberty	+10.5	134.5	83%	72–70	✗
UC Davis @ Cal Poly	+8.2	159.9	77%	65–54	✗
Cal State Fullerton @ UC Irvine	+26.3	132.3	99%	62–82	✓
UC Riverside @ UC Santa Barbara	+7.3	139.3	75%	63–66	✓
UC San Diego @ Long Beach State	-14.3	135.0	10%	80–54	✓
Santa Clara @ Loyola Marymount	-4.6	148.4	34%	54–57	✗
Pacific @ Portland	+2.4	151.0	58%	81–84	✓
San Francisco @ Pepperdine	-4.8	145.5	33%	80–63	✓
Washington State @ San Diego	-13.3	154.0	11%	65–61	✓
Utah Tech @ Seattle U	+10.7	139.7	83%	62–82	✓
Gonzaga @ Oregon State	-5.6	152.9	31%	89–97	✗
Cal State Northridge @ Hawai'i	+1.4	152.3	55%	83–60	✗
Ohio @ Akron	+6.0	164.9	71%	80–92	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.