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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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39–13 on winners spread MAE 8.2 52 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Auburn @ LSU	-13.7	153.8	11%	87–74	✓
Houston @ West Virginia	-10.3	122.8	18%	63–49	✓
Wisconsin @ Maryland	+4.9	154.4	67%	68–76	✓
TCU @ Texas Tech	+14.5	135.1	91%	57–71	✓
Longwood @ Gardner-Webb	-0.4	148.5	49%	87–92	✗
UTSA @ Florida Atlantic	+9.4	169.1	80%	74–94	✓
Charlotte @ Temple	+10.7	148.8	84%	89–90	✓
Virginia @ Miami	-0.7	138.1	48%	82–71	✓
Virginia Tech @ Florida State	+11.9	143.4	86%	76–66	✗
Massachusetts @ Rhode Island	+9.0	159.8	79%	82–88	✓
Richmond @ George Washington	+10.1	138.6	82%	66–75	✓
Loyola Chicago @ George Mason	+11.6	137.0	85%	53–58	✓
Duquesne @ Saint Joseph's	+8.9	137.5	79%	72–76	✓
Fordham @ La Salle	+7.6	153.6	76%	88–72	✗
Northern Iowa @ Drake	+5.5	124.4	69%	52–66	✓
Missouri State @ Indiana State	+4.4	158.7	66%	67–72	✓
Loyola Maryland @ Bucknell	+6.9	144.9	73%	67–79	✓
Navy @ Lehigh	+3.2	143.4	62%	79–54	✗
American University @ Lafayette	+0.9	135.4	53%	75–68	✗
Stetson @ North Florida	+12.9	169.5	88%	100–101	✓
North Alabama @ Queens University	-2.6	153.0	41%	67–75	✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ Jacksonville	+3.2	135.2	61%	83–79	✗
VMI @ Wofford	+11.9	142.4	86%	74–67	✗
Chattanooga @ Western Carolina	-12.3	150.8	13%	84–60	✓
East Tennessee State @ UNC Greensboro	+3.7	133.1	63%	65–70	✓
The Citadel @ Mercer	+14.5	148.6	91%	46–80	✓
North Texas @ Wichita State	-6.7	136.0	27%	58–54	✓
West Georgia @ Central Arkansas	+2.8	146.2	60%	70–75	✓
DePaul @ UConn	+14.9	152.4	91%	61–72	✓
Oklahoma State @ Kansas State	+5.9	147.7	71%	57–85	✓
UAB @ Tulsa	-7.0	159.8	26%	78–68	✓
UIC @ Bradley	+10.2	153.9	82%	93–70	✗
Murray State @ Evansville	-5.2	131.8	32%	74–78	✗
Xavier @ Creighton	+4.9	146.3	67%	77–86	✓
Arkansas State @ Southern Miss	-9.3	149.6	20%	81–68	✓
Oral Roberts @ St. Thomas	+17.7	164.5	95%	71–86	✓
Omaha @ South Dakota	+0.1	173.0	50%	87–91	✓
Alabama @ Mississippi State	-0.3	170.4	49%	88–84	✓
Texas @ Ole Miss	+5.5	144.3	69%	69–72	✓
California @ SMU	+12.1	161.7	87%	65–76	✓
Belmont @ Illinois State	+3.6	160.5	63%	78–81	✓
Rutgers @ Northwestern	+7.5	147.5	75%	79–72	✗
Saint Mary's @ Santa Clara	-2.4	145.4	41%	67–54	✓
Nevada @ Boise State	+6.5	141.5	72%	56–66	✓
UNLV @ Utah State	+12.9	148.5	88%	71–76	✓
Syracuse @ Stanford	+10.5	154.6	83%	61–70	✓
New Hampshire @ Maine	+18.4	135.5	95%	46–71	✓
Stony Brook @ Charleston	+18.2	150.9	95%	74–81	✓
Vermont @ Binghamton	+0.3	125.3	51%	72–75	✓
Ohio State @ Penn State	+0.5	154.8	52%	83–64	✗
Wright State @ Youngstown State	+1.4	146.4	55%	86–88	✓
Towson @ Delaware	+0.4	148.4	51%	76–66	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.