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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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22–22 on winners spread MAE 10.0 44 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
UNC Asheville @ Radford	+2.5	148.3	59%	53–77	✓
Stonehill @ Wagner	-1.7	121.3	44%	57–63	✗
Saint Francis @ Le Moyne	-0.4	157.6	48%	81–76	✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Mercyhurst	-1.6	144.2	44%	60–65	✗
Central Connecticut @ Chicago State	-12.6	129.8	13%	81–75	✓
Bryant @ Vermont	-3.1	139.5	39%	55–59	✗
Georgia State @ James Madison	+9.5	151.1	81%	63–83	✓
Louisiana @ Troy	+16.6	135.2	93%	72–69	✗
Charleston @ Northeastern	+0.9	151.7	53%	73–62	✗
Campbell @ North Carolina A&T	-6.2	144.2	29%	50–53	✗
Towson @ Elon	+3.3	130.3	62%	63–69	✓
Monmouth @ Hofstra	+6.2	133.4	71%	68–62	✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ Stetson	-11.7	143.1	14%	83–80	✓
Austin Peay @ Queens University	+8.0	144.3	77%	92–78	✗
UTEP @ Kennesaw State	+3.1	146.6	61%	73–83	✓
New Mexico State @ Jacksonville State	+5.6	134.8	69%	61–52	✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Morehead State	-3.2	130.5	39%	80–62	✓
Central Arkansas @ West Georgia	+4.5	145.7	66%	82–71	✗
Idaho @ Northern Arizona	+3.6	149.1	63%	83–78	✗
Eastern Washington @ Northern Colorado	+9.6	154.9	81%	76–95	✓
Coastal Carolina @ Southern Miss	+7.0	139.5	74%	87–78	✗
North Alabama @ Lipscomb	+6.3	144.9	72%	63–75	✓
Jacksonville @ North Florida	-1.2	161.6	46%	73–77	✗
Southern Utah @ Abilene Christian	+5.9	139.3	70%	59–75	✓
Lindenwood @ Little Rock	+11.4	129.4	85%	93–92	✗
USC @ Maryland	+13.1	152.3	88%	71–88	✓
UT Martin @ Tennessee Tech	+3.3	148.4	62%	66–71	✓
Western Illinois @ Southeast Missouri State	+13.7	138.0	89%	66–87	✓
Eastern Illinois @ Southern Indiana	+4.0	136.3	64%	63–54	✗
Wichita State @ Florida Atlantic	+6.5	159.3	72%	75–68	✗
Sacramento State @ Weber State	+6.7	133.4	73%	80–77	✗
Portland State @ Idaho State	+2.2	140.9	58%	74–82	✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Davis	+3.9	136.7	64%	71–66	✗
Utah Valley @ Utah Tech	-7.3	144.0	25%	79–77	✓
Sam Houston @ Western Kentucky	+7.4	158.8	75%	78–62	✗
Louisiana Tech @ Middle Tennessee	+5.7	142.0	70%	85–74	✗
UC San Diego @ Cal Poly	-13.3	161.6	11%	81–67	✓
Cal State Northridge @ UC Irvine	+9.7	147.7	81%	84–72	✗
Cal State Fullerton @ UC Santa Barbara	+16.7	138.2	94%	56–86	✓
Long Beach State @ UC Riverside	+13.0	142.6	88%	66–87	✓
Pacific @ San Francisco	+18.7	141.5	96%	58–71	✓
Oregon State @ Pepperdine	-9.2	146.7	20%	84–78	✓
Loyola Marymount @ Santa Clara	+14.5	144.4	91%	61–76	✓
Bowling Green @ Toledo	+8.4	160.1	78%	69–68	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.