We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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83–35 on winners spread MAE 8.4 118 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Marquette @ Villanova -1.6 143.6 44% 66–81 ✗
Manhattan @ Iona +1.2 152.7 54% 60–65 ✓
Dayton @ Loyola Chicago -2.1 146.1 42% 72–76 ✗
Columbia @ Brown +4.8 155.6 67% 61–86 ✓
Cornell @ Yale +13.2 163.4 89% 88–92 ✓
Harvard @ Princeton +8.9 138.2 79% 71–76 ✓
Dartmouth @ Pennsylvania -3.1 146.6 39% 75–88 ✗
Cleveland State @ Detroit Mercy -7.2 132.2 26% 73–65 ✓
Oakland @ Purdue Fort Wayne +5.9 150.1 70% 66–80 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Wright State +6.0 145.4 71% 80–76 ✗
Green Bay @ Robert Morris +15.4 149.4 92% 85–94 ✓
Niagara @ Siena +7.5 139.2 75% 60–94 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Mount St. Mary's +4.2 128.1 65% 58–69 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Merrimack +7.5 140.1 75% 60–59 ✗
Fairfield @ Rider +5.7 138.1 70% 69–49 ✗
Canisius @ Marist +14.7 133.5 91% 81–89 ✓
Michigan State @ Michigan +2.8 151.8 60% 75–62 ✗
Kent State @ Miami (OH) +0.6 139.4 52% 92–96 ✓
Milwaukee @ Youngstown State -0.3 148.3 49% 84–74 ✓
Tennessee @ Texas A&M -1.8 125.0 43% 77–69 ✓
Oregon @ Wisconsin +8.5 152.3 78% 77–73 ✗
Florida State @ Louisville +13.7 148.3 89% 81–89 ✓
TCU @ Cincinnati +6.9 125.8 73% 63–75 ✓
NJIT @ UMBC +10.1 149.9 82% 91–95 ✓
Charleston @ Drexel +0.6 141.9 52% 55–64 ✓
VMI @ Furman +12.0 142.2 86% 71–75 ✓
Richmond @ Saint Joseph's +15.0 139.0 91% 62–78 ✓
West Virginia @ Texas Tech +9.6 137.5 81% 51–73 ✓
Mississippi State @ Oklahoma -1.9 151.9 43% 87–93 ✗
Marshall @ App State +6.0 132.7 71% 69–59 ✗
Central Michigan @ Western Michigan -2.2 145.8 42% 86–57 ✓
Iowa State @ Houston +9.7 134.6 81% 59–68 ✓
Longwood @ UNC Asheville +2.8 156.2 60% 82–87 ✓
High Point @ Gardner-Webb -7.7 157.9 24% 90–67 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Charleston Southern +9.2 158.2 80% 79–69 ✗
Tulsa @ Rice +8.2 140.8 77% 50–71 ✓
Wake Forest @ NC State -1.8 130.5 43% 73–85 ✗
Georgia Tech @ Boston College -2.6 148.3 41% 54–69 ✗
Davidson @ Fordham -2.3 153.3 42% 80–69 ✓
Penn State @ Minnesota -0.3 143.0 49% 69–60 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Saint Francis +1.8 149.6 57% 80–85 ✓
Wagner @ Chicago State +0.0 122.2 50% 64–52 ✗
Maine @ Binghamton -3.4 135.1 38% 69–71 ✗
UNC Wilmington @ Hampton -3.9 141.4 36% 70–83 ✗
Towson @ Campbell +2.4 127.8 59% 76–67 ✗
Stony Brook @ North Carolina A&T +5.1 146.4 68% 72–73 ✓
North Dakota State @ North Dakota -6.5 162.1 28% 77–79 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ Mercer -4.0 142.9 36% 78–61 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Wofford +2.3 136.3 58% 73–68 ✗
The Citadel @ Chattanooga +21.0 146.3 97% 75–76 ✓
Tennessee State @ Tennessee Tech +0.8 156.9 53% 74–77 ✓
Florida International @ Liberty +17.6 135.7 95% 45–58 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Notre Dame -3.7 145.6 37% 72–76 ✗
Rhode Island @ Saint Louis +3.2 151.3 62% 66–81 ✓
Buffalo @ Ball State +11.1 152.3 84% 66–80 ✓
Evansville @ UIC +10.0 143.3 82% 77–82 ✓
Fresno State @ Air Force +0.1 144.7 50% 69–72 ✓
UL Monroe @ Arkansas State +22.7 144.3 98% 70–95 ✓
Western Carolina @ Samford +21.1 156.5 97% 72–93 ✓
Sam Houston @ Middle Tennessee +6.5 153.7 72% 70–74 ✓
Ole Miss @ Vanderbilt -0.6 153.2 48% 72–77 ✗
Eastern Illinois @ Morehead State +3.9 127.6 64% 67–62 ✗
Georgia @ Auburn +16.3 147.5 93% 70–82 ✓
Clemson @ SMU +0.1 151.1 51% 79–69 ✗
Oklahoma State @ Kansas +17.2 146.4 94% 64–96 ✓
Baylor @ Colorado -7.7 145.7 24% 74–76 ✗
Virginia @ North Carolina +10.8 141.8 84% 66–81 ✓
George Mason @ VCU +8.6 130.0 78% 54–70 ✓
Duquesne @ St. Bonaventure +6.8 125.6 73% 63–70 ✓
Howard @ Morgan State -0.5 171.9 48% 87–81 ✓
South Carolina State @ Delaware State -2.5 147.3 41% 94–88 ✓
San José State @ Wyoming +3.4 136.6 62% 82–73 ✗
Boston University @ American University +5.5 129.3 69% 44–48 ✓
Washington @ Iowa +7.7 161.3 76% 79–85 ✓
Alcorn State @ Jackson State +6.9 141.4 73% 63–71 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Nicholls +5.8 151.9 70% 84–93 ✓
Long Island University @ Le Moyne -2.4 144.0 41% 76–61 ✓
Stonehill @ Central Connecticut +10.2 131.1 82% 41–67 ✓
Portland State @ Weber State -3.6 142.2 37% 58–60 ✗
Eastern Washington @ Northern Arizona +2.9 144.8 61% 67–87 ✓
Georgia Southern @ James Madison +9.9 149.1 82% 73–78 ✓
Hofstra @ Delaware +2.2 144.7 58% 78–65 ✗
Seattle U @ Utah Valley +4.5 139.9 66% 55–61 ✓
Western Illinois @ Little Rock +12.8 129.6 88% 61–75 ✓
Presbyterian @ Radford +7.0 136.2 74% 80–73 ✗
Norfolk State @ Coppin State -15.6 139.1 8% 79–63 ✓
Florida A&M @ Alabama State +4.4 147.2 66% 59–60 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Vermont +1.7 138.0 56% 61–85 ✓
East Texas A&M @ SE Louisiana +12.5 139.0 87% 65–83 ✓
Lamar @ Houston Christian -2.9 132.3 39% 66–58 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Troy +15.6 130.8 92% 66–83 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Northern Illinois -2.6 147.4 41% 79–76 ✓
Lindenwood @ Southeast Missouri State +11.9 143.1 86% 58–74 ✓
Lehigh @ Lafayette +2.7 135.3 60% 70–78 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Alabama A&M -7.1 149.2 26% 68–64 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ McNeese +11.7 141.9 86% 57–73 ✓
UC Riverside @ Cal Poly -0.7 166.6 47% 100–112 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ UC Davis -4.8 144.0 33% 65–62 ✓
Oregon State @ San Diego -13.4 147.8 11% 83–73 ✓
UTEP @ Jacksonville State +4.0 140.3 64% 65–73 ✓
New Mexico State @ Kennesaw State +3.9 140.0 64% 60–49 ✗
Southern @ Grambling -3.2 129.5 39% 71–64 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Prairie View A&M +11.7 168.9 86% 75–64 ✗
South Alabama @ Texas State -1.4 137.4 45% 92–93 ✗
Florida @ LSU -11.6 152.4 15% 79–65 ✓
Massachusetts @ George Washington +8.3 149.0 78% 52–74 ✓
Murray State @ Bradley +8.1 140.8 77% 83–85 ✓
Indiana State @ Belmont +7.9 177.2 76% 75–77 ✓
Boise State @ Nevada -0.8 138.6 47% 70–69 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Texas Southern +27.4 136.1 99% 38–79 ✓
Cornell @ Brown -0.3 156.4 49% 85–81 ✓
Harvard @ Pennsylvania +1.2 140.1 54% 79–78 ✗
Northwestern State @ LSU New Orleans -4.5 142.9 34% 73–66 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Incarnate Word +2.8 132.9 60% 61–63 ✓
Santa Clara @ Washington State -3.9 158.1 36% 109–79 ✓
Akron @ Ohio -2.4 167.1 41% 67–84 ✗
Kentucky @ Alabama +5.6 183.6 70% 83–96 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Miami +2.1 151.0 58% 81–68 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.