Lights going out, and a kick in the balls. "That's Entertainment" - The Jam
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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48–11 on winners spread MAE 9.1 59 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Kansas City @ Omaha +2.6 139.5 59% 61–70 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Bucknell +9.8 145.0 81% 72–76 ✓
Lafayette @ American University +4.8 130.9 67% 69–71 ✓
Navy @ Boston University +1.9 131.9 57% 86–78 ✗
Army @ Colgate +6.7 151.1 73% 55–84 ✓
UT Martin @ Little Rock +4.3 135.0 65% 77–82 ✓
Evansville @ Murray State +5.9 131.6 71% 53–74 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Youngstown State +0.6 155.8 52% 67–72 ✓
Jacksonville @ North Alabama +7.9 143.2 76% 63–78 ✓
Niagara @ Saint Peter's +6.1 126.2 71% 78–68 ✗
Tulane @ East Carolina +2.7 146.1 60% 64–73 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ UAB +3.9 169.1 64% 80–89 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Quinnipiac +7.5 148.0 75% 70–79 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Manhattan +4.2 162.3 65% 74–90 ✓
Merrimack @ Marist +0.8 121.2 53% 75–53 ✗
Canisius @ Rider +8.8 141.7 79% 50–78 ✓
Fairfield @ Siena +10.7 142.8 84% 64–68 ✓
North Carolina Central @ South Carolina State +11.0 150.1 84% 71–87 ✓
Norfolk State @ Howard -4.6 156.7 34% 81–69 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Delaware State +12.3 148.2 87% 68–75 ✓
UTEP @ Sam Houston +1.2 151.5 54% 87–89 ✓
New Mexico State @ Louisiana Tech +3.6 130.5 63% 67–55 ✗
Liberty @ Middle Tennessee -1.1 139.7 46% 86–81 ✓
Michigan State @ Iowa -7.2 155.7 26% 91–84 ✓
Oakland @ Milwaukee +7.0 144.0 74% 72–64 ✗
Wright State @ Robert Morris +6.7 153.0 73% 62–83 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Cleveland State +6.4 134.8 72% 63–68 ✓
Queens University @ Lipscomb +12.3 146.3 87% 75–81 ✓
Wichita State @ Rice -0.2 144.7 49% 63–59 ✓
Morgan State @ Coppin State -4.1 150.2 35% 75–82 ✗
Jackson State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -11.9 159.5 14% 76–69 ✓
Utah Valley @ Abilene Christian -4.2 138.6 35% 73–60 ✓
Florida International @ Western Kentucky +11.0 146.2 84% 67–76 ✓
Old Dominion @ Texas State +6.8 147.6 73% 64–61 ✗
Alcorn State @ Mississippi Valley State -17.9 127.9 5% 72–64 ✓
Seattle U @ Southern Utah -5.9 139.1 30% 62–39 ✓
Charlotte @ North Texas +15.7 126.6 92% 64–75 ✓
Alabama State @ Southern +7.5 142.9 75% 66–65 ✗
UC Irvine @ UC Davis -8.9 129.9 21% 88–59 ✓
Utah Tech @ Grand Canyon +16.8 149.1 94% 68–90 ✓
Denver @ St. Thomas +10.9 152.2 84% 62–80 ✓
Lindenwood @ Tennessee State +5.4 153.0 69% 55–69 ✓
Valparaiso @ UIC +4.2 158.0 65% 67–50 ✗
Alabama A&M @ Grambling +10.3 141.6 83% 51–67 ✓
Hawai'i @ Cal State Bakersfield +2.0 141.9 57% 64–76 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ UC Riverside -0.4 158.4 49% 79–94 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal Poly +16.5 162.6 93% 61–100 ✓
Long Beach State @ UC San Diego +24.8 137.1 99% 63–70 ✓
Tarleton State @ California Baptist +11.3 130.1 85% 48–68 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ High Point +12.0 155.9 86% 64–85 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Drake +9.3 130.3 80% 53–70 ✓
Stony Brook @ Delaware +5.7 155.2 70% 76–80 ✓
Presbyterian @ Radford +3.3 135.1 62% 69–74 ✓
Illinois State @ Belmont -0.9 160.3 47% 63–76 ✗
North Carolina A&T @ Hofstra +6.9 132.5 73% 55–77 ✓
Western Carolina @ Mercer +8.3 153.5 78% 66–67 ✓
Georgia State @ Marshall +5.8 154.9 70% 76–79 ✓
Charleston Southern @ UNC Asheville +5.4 153.7 69% 60–80 ✓
Ball State @ Miami (OH) +9.6 151.8 81% 66–79 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.