They were all in love with dying, they we're doing it in Texas. "Pepper" - Butthole Surfers
← All models

Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →
63–30 on winners spread MAE 9.0 93 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
South Dakota @ North Dakota State +6.8 175.3 73% 85–84 ✗
Murray State @ Bradley +4.8 141.2 67% 62–70 ✓
Dayton @ VCU +10.5 143.2 83% 79–76 ✗
Western Michigan @ Bowling Green +4.6 147.5 66% 64–63 ✗
Ohio @ Toledo -1.3 164.0 45% 82–96 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Central Michigan +15.6 143.5 92% 83–81 ✗
Eastern Michigan @ Kent State +13.2 140.6 89% 70–76 ✓
Buffalo @ Akron +22.0 162.4 98% 70–88 ✓
The Citadel @ VMI +7.3 140.0 75% 62–73 ✓
Purdue @ Illinois +3.4 157.5 62% 80–88 ✓
Little Rock @ Southeast Missouri State +1.5 136.1 55% 59–78 ✓
Longwood @ Winthrop +1.6 163.9 56% 79–88 ✓
South Florida @ Memphis +17.4 150.8 94% 68–84 ✓
Pepperdine @ Portland -2.4 157.7 41% 86–73 ✓
Old Dominion @ App State +7.7 126.6 76% 61–56 ✗
North Dakota @ South Dakota State +10.0 160.4 82% 85–69 ✗
Valparaiso @ Northern Iowa +8.2 145.5 77% 64–63 ✗
UNLV @ New Mexico +10.8 147.7 84% 67–81 ✓
Colorado State @ Boise State +5.1 141.7 68% 83–73 ✗
Tennessee State @ SIU Edwardsville +1.2 147.2 54% 69–71 ✓
San Diego @ Loyola Marymount +8.3 143.0 78% 74–100 ✓
St. John's @ Marquette +2.6 144.2 59% 86–84 ✗
Kentucky @ Missouri +2.3 169.2 58% 91–83 ✗
Mississippi State @ Arkansas +2.2 147.9 58% 92–93 ✓
Elon @ Drexel -0.8 130.3 47% 74–91 ✗
Mercer @ Chattanooga +8.7 158.5 78% 61–76 ✓
Saint Francis @ Long Island University +6.1 135.5 71% 71–68 ✗
Radford @ High Point +6.8 146.2 73% 73–76 ✓
NC State @ Miami -1.6 150.1 44% 70–72 ✗
Vanderbilt @ Georgia +5.1 150.9 68% 68–79 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Massachusetts -0.7 150.3 48% 74–51 ✓
Penn State @ Wisconsin +11.7 155.1 86% 86–75 ✗
Iowa State @ Kansas State -6.7 144.3 27% 73–57 ✓
South Carolina @ Tennessee +16.5 125.8 93% 65–75 ✓
Stanford @ Louisville +12.2 146.7 87% 48–68 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Central Connecticut +11.6 137.1 85% 72–76 ✓
Fordham @ Rhode Island +10.0 161.4 82% 67–86 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Davidson +0.0 133.2 50% 64–61 ✗
Columbia @ Cornell +12.7 171.4 88% 81–100 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Princeton +9.1 143.8 80% 71–95 ✓
Yale @ Brown -8.3 146.8 23% 70–61 ✓
Dartmouth @ Harvard -1.3 142.0 45% 58–66 ✗
Georgetown @ DePaul -0.8 142.9 47% 77–83 ✗
Niagara @ Rider +3.4 136.5 62% 76–77 ✓
Canisius @ Saint Peter's +11.6 131.8 85% 62–70 ✓
Siena @ Manhattan +3.3 153.7 62% 66–78 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Wake Forest +5.7 140.3 70% 43–69 ✓
Alabama @ Auburn +9.5 176.1 80% 93–91 ✗
VMI @ UNC Greensboro +10.2 137.3 82% 64–57 ✗
Winthrop @ UNC Asheville -1.3 168.5 45% 86–67 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ La Salle -8.6 146.2 22% 74–81 ✗
Seton Hall @ UConn +18.4 133.6 95% 50–81 ✓
Delaware @ Campbell +3.4 151.8 62% 79–62 ✗
Northwestern @ Maryland +10.9 142.4 84% 61–74 ✓
New Hampshire @ Vermont +13.9 126.3 90% 57–64 ✓
Cincinnati @ Oklahoma State -5.1 138.8 32% 67–78 ✗
UTEP @ Louisiana Tech +4.0 141.0 64% 58–76 ✓
Liberty @ Western Kentucky -3.1 142.2 39% 90–61 ✓
Florida International @ Middle Tennessee +12.2 145.8 87% 56–78 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Jacksonville State +4.9 144.5 67% 74–70 ✗
Belmont @ Drake +6.8 141.0 73% 50–57 ✓
Jackson State @ Mississippi Valley State -23.2 136.8 2% 66–62 ✓
New Mexico State @ Sam Houston -0.3 141.2 49% 69–76 ✗
Ohio State @ Indiana +0.0 151.2 50% 60–66 ✓
Texas A&M @ LSU -5.6 140.6 30% 66–52 ✓
UMBC @ Bryant +13.7 170.6 89% 74–85 ✓
TCU @ Colorado +1.4 131.9 55% 56–76 ✓
SMU @ Florida State -2.9 155.5 40% 69–76 ✗
California @ Notre Dame +5.2 147.0 68% 110–112 ✓
Air Force @ Utah State +22.7 145.4 98% 47–87 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Abilene Christian -6.4 142.7 28% 81–82 ✗
Marist @ Mount St. Mary's +2.9 133.2 61% 52–62 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Iona +3.3 149.6 62% 88–90 ✓
Providence @ Xavier +10.8 148.8 84% 68–76 ✓
Arizona @ Kansas +1.9 150.9 57% 76–83 ✓
UCF @ West Virginia +8.8 147.1 79% 65–72 ✓
Fresno State @ San José State +7.1 153.4 74% 68–92 ✓
Texas Southern @ Prairie View A&M -5.3 149.6 32% 80–68 ✓
Florida A&M @ Bethune-Cookman +5.9 141.5 70% 75–76 ✓
Ole Miss @ Florida +11.3 153.6 85% 71–90 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Clemson +18.1 138.9 95% 47–65 ✓
Hampton @ Northeastern +0.3 138.2 51% 70–65 ✗
UMass Lowell @ Maine +4.8 147.3 67% 64–72 ✓
Wofford @ East Tennessee State +0.6 136.7 52% 72–60 ✗
Valparaiso @ Bradley +9.6 150.2 81% 65–70 ✓
Boston College @ Pittsburgh +15.0 146.5 91% 67–93 ✓
George Mason @ Richmond -8.4 129.3 22% 64–60 ✓
Butler @ Creighton +8.7 149.5 78% 74–87 ✓
Marshall @ Arkansas State +7.3 150.4 75% 74–77 ✓
Alabama State @ Grambling +0.4 135.6 52% 59–47 ✗
Alcorn State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -6.0 150.1 29% 65–63 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Southern +18.3 146.1 95% 57–71 ✓
Duke @ North Carolina -11.8 156.3 14% 82–69 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.