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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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13–8 on winners spread MAE 7.1 21 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Incarnate Word @ Nicholls +3.9 144.4 64% 70–74 ✓
Pepperdine @ Saint Mary's +19.1 137.0 96% 59–74 ✓
Charleston @ UNC Wilmington +3.6 153.2 63% 67–68 ✓
Idaho @ Portland State +4.3 147.0 65% 80–70 ✗
Youngstown State @ Cleveland State +1.6 137.9 56% 56–54 ✗
San Francisco @ Gonzaga +11.9 154.3 86% 76–85 ✓
Cincinnati @ Oklahoma State -7.3 139.4 25% 87–68 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Grambling +6.9 138.5 74% 56–73 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Notre Dame -5.4 147.0 31% 54–55 ✗
Colorado @ TCU +0.7 132.2 53% 69–67 ✗
Utah Tech @ Southern Utah -0.2 145.4 49% 72–65 ✓
California @ Virginia Tech -2.9 146.4 40% 82–73 ✓
Siena @ Rider -4.7 139.6 34% 76–78 ✗
Sam Houston @ UTEP +1.4 153.1 55% 65–79 ✓
Delaware @ UNC Wilmington +8.2 159.5 77% 72–76 ✓
Maine @ Vermont +1.6 122.2 56% 57–42 ✗
Northwestern State @ McNeese +15.3 131.9 92% 64–83 ✓
Saint Francis @ Central Connecticut +12.0 137.7 86% 46–43 ✗
Youngstown State @ Robert Morris +3.3 145.5 62% 78–89 ✓
Arizona State @ Kansas State +0.5 145.2 52% 66–71 ✓
Syracuse @ Florida State +3.5 154.7 63% 66–62 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.