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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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26–9 on winners spread MAE 8.8 35 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Prairie View A&M @ Florida A&M +6.2 152.1 71% 66–75 ✓
Fairfield @ Sacred Heart +5.3 151.7 69% 58–71 ✓
Gonzaga @ Saint Mary's -3.7 143.4 37% 58–51 ✓
UAlbany @ Bryant +10.8 157.8 84% 78–91 ✓
Montana State @ Northern Colorado +2.8 151.6 60% 45–72 ✓
Florida International @ Western Kentucky +6.7 146.1 73% 64–61 ✗
Nicholls @ Lamar +0.1 139.4 50% 55–58 ✓
UCF @ Utah +1.9 161.9 57% 87–72 ✗
Idaho @ Montana +4.8 155.1 67% 55–78 ✓
Richmond @ Davidson +5.9 138.4 70% 65–69 ✓
Virginia @ Georgia Tech +0.0 132.4 50% 60–66 ✓
Cincinnati @ Iowa State +6.9 137.8 73% 56–76 ✓
Charlotte @ Rice +3.9 142.7 64% 64–61 ✗
South Carolina @ Arkansas +5.7 138.4 70% 68–72 ✓
Grambling @ Southern +6.1 128.8 71% 65–62 ✗
Wyoming @ San José State +0.5 138.0 52% 61–66 ✓
Fordham @ Rhode Island +6.9 160.9 73% 88–71 ✗
Notre Dame @ North Carolina +8.2 156.9 77% 56–76 ✓
Colorado @ West Virginia +5.7 130.4 70% 67–60 ✗
Northwestern @ Minnesota -5.3 131.7 32% 72–64 ✓
Texas @ Vanderbilt -0.7 156.9 48% 79–72 ✓
Butler @ Providence -2.2 149.1 42% 75–69 ✓
Fresno State @ Nevada +13.3 147.2 89% 71–86 ✓
La Salle @ Massachusetts +0.7 151.0 53% 78–71 ✗
Lamar @ McNeese +12.6 133.7 87% 54–63 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Norfolk State +16.2 143.0 93% 70–77 ✓
Rider @ Quinnipiac +6.7 144.7 73% 64–78 ✓
Iowa @ Ohio State +5.6 163.4 69% 77–70 ✗
UTEP @ Liberty +7.6 138.2 75% 60–81 ✓
DePaul @ Georgetown +3.7 143.9 63% 71–67 ✗
LSU @ Mississippi State +6.9 150.8 74% 62–91 ✓
Navy @ American University +3.7 136.3 63% 52–74 ✓
Air Force @ UNLV +13.3 129.8 89% 59–68 ✓
Kansas State @ Baylor +6.7 143.7 73% 56–70 ✓
California @ Stanford +3.1 149.0 61% 73–78 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.