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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
28–5 on winners
spread MAE 10.9
33 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arkansas
@
Michigan State
|
+4.2 | 161.5 | 65% | 66–69 | ✓ |
Queens University
@
Villanova
|
+12.9 | 141.3 | 88% | 74–94 | ✓ |
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
@
Tarleton State
|
+5.8 | 148.8 | 70% | 77–85 | ✓ |
Central Michigan
@
Bradley
|
+9.2 | 141.1 | 80% | 54–85 | ✓ |
Bellarmine
@
Kansas State
|
+20.4 | 157.1 | 97% | 71–98 | ✓ |
UT Rio Grande Valley
@
Southern Utah
|
+13.6 | 157.8 | 89% | 95–72 | ✗ |
Holy Cross
@
BYU
|
+13.8 | 146.1 | 90% | 53–98 | ✓ |
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
@
Loyola Marymount
|
+20.6 | 137.4 | 97% | 72–94 | ✓ |
Chattanooga
@
UNLV
|
+9.5 | 159.0 | 81% | 69–101 | ✓ |
Cal Poly
@
Seattle U
|
+19.8 | 155.3 | 96% | 73–71 | ✗ |
Oklahoma
@
Gonzaga
|
+23.9 | 149.7 | 99% | 68–83 | ✓ |
Western Michigan
@
Campbell
|
+14.3 | 150.9 | 90% | 82–91 | ✓ |
North Carolina Central
@
App State
|
+19.5 | 155.7 | 96% | 54–76 | ✓ |
Indiana
@
Marquette
|
-10.4 | 151.6 | 17% | 100–77 | ✓ |
Coppin State
@
James Madison
|
+28.9 | 151.5 | 100% | 70–84 | ✓ |
Morehead State
@
Georgia
|
+39.5 | 146.3 | 100% | 81–120 | ✓ |
Lipscomb
@
Mercer
|
+24.5 | 145.5 | 99% | 77–92 | ✓ |
Le Moyne
@
Bowling Green
|
+20.5 | 144.1 | 97% | 60–83 | ✓ |
Cal State Northridge
@
North Dakota
|
+13.6 | 144.3 | 89% | 93–85 | ✗ |
South Dakota State
@
Northern Iowa
|
+20.6 | 146.2 | 97% | 58–65 | ✓ |
Texas A&M
@
Oklahoma State
|
+14.2 | 169.6 | 90% | 63–87 | ✓ |
Cornell
@
Illinois State
|
+14.5 | 157.5 | 91% | 65–76 | ✓ |
Denver
@
Montana State
|
+11.8 | 151.8 | 86% | 75–73 | ✗ |
Lehigh
@
West Virginia
|
+9.3 | 137.9 | 80% | 47–69 | ✓ |
Utah Tech
@
Arizona State
|
+13.3 | 150.8 | 89% | 66–81 | ✓ |
VMI
@
Missouri
|
+14.3 | 161.6 | 90% | 68–106 | ✓ |
North Texas
@
Loyola Chicago
|
-13.4 | 148.9 | 11% | 64–62 | ✓ |
UC Davis
@
Portland
|
+7.4 | 157.2 | 75% | 63–67 | ✓ |
Idaho State
@
San Diego State
|
+13.1 | 136.5 | 88% | 57–73 | ✓ |
Grambling
@
Howard
|
+4.7 | 158.0 | 67% | 73–70 | ✗ |
Florida Atlantic
@
Liberty
|
+8.9 | 166.5 | 79% | 68–88 | ✓ |
Omaha
@
Colorado State
|
+18.7 | 155.9 | 96% | 74–97 | ✓ |
Southern Miss
@
South Carolina
|
+15.1 | 159.1 | 92% | 79–83 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.