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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
13–3 on winners
spread MAE 10.8
16 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Purdue
@
Alabama
|
+17.9 | 157.7 | 95% | 87–80 | ✗ |
Alcorn State
@
Howard
|
+7.3 | 153.3 | 75% | 64–72 | ✓ |
Le Moyne
@
Massachusetts
|
+10.6 | 149.4 | 83% | 80–94 | ✓ |
Monmouth
@
Seton Hall
|
+20.6 | 132.4 | 97% | 58–70 | ✓ |
UMass Lowell
@
Columbia
|
+36.2 | 149.6 | 100% | 72–86 | ✓ |
Southern Miss
@
Grambling
|
+1.7 | 162.0 | 56% | 70–75 | ✓ |
Loyola Chicago
@
Wichita State
|
+26.7 | 150.4 | 99% | 74–95 | ✓ |
Florida International
@
LSU
|
+31.8 | 158.0 | 100% | 81–98 | ✓ |
Green Bay
@
St. Thomas
|
+7.1 | 150.4 | 74% | 61–80 | ✓ |
UL Monroe
@
Houston Christian
|
+16.3 | 153.1 | 93% | 61–72 | ✓ |
Charleston Southern
@
Alabama A&M
|
+1.1 | 158.2 | 54% | 64–68 | ✓ |
California
@
Kansas State
|
+11.3 | 154.8 | 85% | 96–99 | ✓ |
Central Michigan
@
Coppin State
|
-10.5 | 148.2 | 17% | 82–59 | ✓ |
Lehigh
@
Rutgers
|
+16.7 | 141.9 | 94% | 72–84 | ✓ |
IU Indianapolis
@
Eastern Michigan
|
+19.0 | 177.9 | 96% | 90–83 | ✗ |
Lindenwood
@
Charleston Southern
|
+10.9 | 167.8 | 84% | 83–77 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.