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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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40–5 on winners spread MAE 9.4 45 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
North Florida @ Tennessee +28.9 148.8 100% 66–99 ✓
Elon @ Marshall +20.2 164.4 97% 89–96 ✓
James Madison @ Longwood +11.5 148.5 85% 72–82 ✓
Presbyterian @ South Carolina +16.6 142.1 93% 61–81 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ East Tennessee State +21.0 152.0 97% 63–75 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Western Michigan +16.1 162.1 93% 71–83 ✓
Coppin State @ South Florida +26.3 173.3 99% 50–100 ✓
Saint Peter's @ VCU +23.8 168.6 98% 61–78 ✓
Milwaukee @ Indiana +32.5 173.9 100% 70–101 ✓
Brown @ Boston University +28.7 141.9 100% 77–90 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Virginia Tech +22.6 158.0 98% 59–94 ✓
Siena @ St. Bonaventure +8.3 139.8 77% 66–75 ✓
American University @ George Washington +18.9 157.3 96% 67–107 ✓
Mercyhurst @ Canisius -6.1 140.5 29% 55–58 ✗
Oakland @ Houston +19.4 155.5 96% 45–78 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Vanderbilt +36.0 172.6 100% 62–92 ✓
Tulsa @ Oral Roberts -0.7 160.6 48% 88–87 ✓
Minnesota @ Missouri +6.6 155.3 73% 60–83 ✓
UTSA @ Texas State +20.8 148.7 97% 69–80 ✓
Little Rock @ Marquette +18.3 156.5 95% 49–89 ✓
Nicholls @ Valparaiso +0.9 135.3 53% 63–68 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ NC State +31.0 171.5 100% 64–110 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Oklahoma State +30.8 160.6 100% 67–94 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Texas +25.3 146.5 99% 58–93 ✓
Southern Indiana @ South Dakota +14.5 153.8 91% 74–89 ✓
UT Martin @ Bradley +9.3 139.0 80% 78–67 ✗
Samford @ Texas Southern -0.6 160.4 48% 93–90 ✓
Dartmouth @ Bryant +15.6 145.5 92% 75–82 ✓
Weber State @ Utah State +12.5 158.9 87% 73–83 ✓
UC San Diego @ Fresno State +6.1 140.7 71% 78–73 ✗
Cal Poly @ Colorado State +19.9 159.1 96% 79–93 ✓
Idaho @ San Diego +0.8 151.5 53% 74–78 ✓
Manhattan @ Utah Tech +2.2 169.2 58% 79–75 ✗
South Dakota State @ Oregon +3.2 129.0 62% 69–83 ✓
North Texas @ Oregon State +3.6 129.1 63% 64–66 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Nevada +11.8 150.4 86% 81–86 ✓
Portland State @ San Francisco +11.6 155.0 85% 70–80 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Seattle U +4.3 156.0 65% 67–94 ✓
Long Beach State @ Pacific +25.2 151.0 99% 66–69 ✓
Montana State @ Stanford +18.4 149.3 95% 68–77 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Hawai'i +38.2 157.6 100% 56–88 ✓
Central Michigan @ South Alabama +4.7 151.1 66% 64–66 ✓
Cornell @ Lafayette +4.8 170.7 67% 97–78 ✗
Pittsburgh @ West Virginia +4.9 127.4 67% 49–71 ✓
San José State @ Michigan State +8.3 143.7 77% 60–79 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.