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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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20–8 on winners spread MAE 8.2 28 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Western Carolina @ Georgia	+35.0	171.0	100%	82–112	✓
Bradley @ Indiana State	-0.6	142.5	48%	108–99	✓
Temple @ Davidson	+10.0	153.1	82%	68–63	✗
Radford @ William & Mary	+21.2	168.6	97%	83–96	✓
Furman @ Manhattan	-7.6	156.3	24%	75–68	✓
Southern Utah @ Northern Arizona	+12.0	146.9	86%	57–65	✓
American University @ VCU	+20.3	152.9	97%	83–105	✓
Delaware State @ Saint Joseph's	+15.5	137.6	92%	51–67	✓
Lafayette @ Charlotte	+13.6	139.0	89%	67–81	✓
Fairfield @ Central Connecticut	+9.1	147.6	80%	84–70	✗
Norfolk State @ Grambling	-1.3	128.2	45%	68–80	✗
Drake @ Murray State	+9.2	167.3	80%	72–81	✓
Winthrop @ North Dakota	-14.0	159.2	10%	88–90	✗
Kansas City @ Oklahoma State	+28.6	157.0	100%	79–91	✓
Oral Roberts @ TCU	+20.6	147.7	97%	53–72	✓
Georgia State @ Georgia Southern	+14.1	156.4	90%	67–90	✓
Louisiana @ Southern Miss	+19.5	133.7	96%	54–62	✓
UT Martin @ Tennessee State	+2.5	136.1	59%	71–78	✓
Little Rock @ Southern Indiana	+10.0	143.1	82%	77–62	✗
Western Illinois @ Lindenwood	+19.2	148.8	96%	76–92	✓
Illinois State @ Southern Illinois	+0.2	153.8	51%	75–68	✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Tennessee Tech	+4.4	158.8	66%	74–85	✓
Pepperdine @ Long Beach State	+4.9	141.6	67%	78–81	✓
Dartmouth @ Sacred Heart	-0.9	157.5	47%	63–85	✗
Grambling @ Hampton	-0.7	139.6	47%	81–72	✓
South Dakota State @ Milwaukee	-1.2	154.7	46%	87–88	✗
Coppin State @ Navy	+24.9	146.0	99%	55–88	✓
Seton Hall @ Providence	-0.8	159.9	47%	72–67	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.