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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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37–16 on winners spread MAE 9.2 53 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Stonehill @ Central Connecticut	+10.8	137.6	84%	69–76	✓
Saint Francis @ Wagner	+17.3	156.9	94%	71–69	✗
Mercyhurst @ Long Island University	+12.0	141.6	86%	58–60	✓
New Haven @ Le Moyne	+6.5	138.8	72%	47–73	✓
New Hampshire @ NJIT	-0.1	132.8	50%	76–80	✗
Binghamton @ Vermont	+22.0	155.7	98%	59–60	✓
UNC Wilmington @ Northeastern	-2.2	145.7	42%	87–78	✓
Elon @ North Carolina A&T	-5.4	168.5	31%	69–64	✓
Hampton @ Campbell	+6.0	148.8	71%	72–86	✓
William & Mary @ Monmouth	-5.2	154.3	32%	70–81	✗
Stony Brook @ Drexel	+1.9	135.0	57%	37–56	✓
App State @ Georgia State	-1.0	136.4	46%	52–50	✓
Old Dominion @ Coastal Carolina	+3.0	147.5	61%	70–66	✗
West Georgia @ North Florida	+0.5	168.9	52%	85–73	✗
Queens University @ Jacksonville	-2.3	159.8	42%	77–51	✓
North Alabama @ Eastern Kentucky	+7.0	146.6	74%	80–88	✓
Lipscomb @ Stetson	-13.9	150.2	10%	83–91	✗
Central Arkansas @ Bellarmine	-0.8	156.4	47%	78–84	✗
Austin Peay @ Florida Gulf Coast	+2.7	156.0	60%	82–71	✗
Liberty @ Louisiana Tech	-5.1	129.8	32%	72–56	✓
UT Martin @ Morehead State	-3.8	137.1	37%	76–68	✓
Delaware @ Sam Houston	+16.2	148.1	93%	60–72	✓
Denver @ South Dakota State	+6.8	168.1	73%	79–87	✓
North Dakota State @ Kansas City	-8.4	143.0	22%	97–73	✓
North Dakota @ Omaha	+6.0	149.4	71%	79–90	✓
Texas State @ Southern Miss	+11.6	144.8	85%	70–80	✓
Weber State @ Northern Arizona	-3.4	150.7	38%	78–65	✓
Idaho State @ Northern Colorado	+2.5	157.9	59%	72–85	✓
Southern Utah @ Utah Valley	+26.5	153.8	99%	72–89	✓
Abilene Christian @ Tarleton State	+8.6	148.0	78%	84–80	✗
Rutgers @ Illinois	+26.0	147.7	99%	55–81	✓
Tennessee State @ Western Illinois	-8.4	146.8	22%	90–68	✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Southern Indiana	-6.0	148.5	29%	84–76	✓
Little Rock @ SIU Edwardsville	+8.8	133.9	79%	73–70	✗
Tennessee Tech @ Eastern Illinois	+2.5	143.4	59%	61–71	✓
UL Monroe @ Louisiana	+5.6	142.2	70%	79–85	✓
UC Davis @ UC Santa Barbara	+3.4	156.0	62%	93–86	✗
Montana @ Idaho	+6.5	154.3	72%	79–73	✗
Montana State @ Eastern Washington	-3.3	159.8	38%	68–64	✓
Middle Tennessee @ UTEP	-8.1	133.6	23%	80–83	✗
Western Kentucky @ New Mexico State	+3.6	157.6	63%	64–80	✓
Pepperdine @ San Diego	+6.2	143.4	71%	63–83	✓
UC Riverside @ Cal State Bakersfield	+2.7	154.6	60%	66–67	✓
Seattle U @ Oregon State	-4.9	142.1	33%	55–68	✗
Pacific @ Portland	-4.0	143.7	36%	89–90	✗
Cal Poly @ Cal State Northridge	+5.2	172.9	68%	90–95	✓
Long Beach State @ UC Irvine	+11.5	142.5	85%	64–74	✓
Cal State Fullerton @ UC San Diego	+16.3	169.6	93%	88–71	✗
Utah Tech @ California Baptist	+7.5	141.8	75%	72–84	✓
Ohio State @ Oregon	-2.7	157.5	40%	72–62	✓
San Francisco @ Loyola Marymount	+2.8	135.0	60%	82–84	✓
Santa Clara @ Gonzaga	+18.1	162.4	95%	77–89	✓
Miami (OH) @ Toledo	-1.9	167.9	43%	87–73	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.