Don't talk to me about your big, big heroes "Kelly's Heroes" - Black Grape
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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37–10 on winners spread MAE 7.7 47 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Texas Tech @ Colorado -5.8 163.1 30% 73–71 ✓
San Diego @ Pacific +9.3 147.6 80% 70–77 ✓
Southern @ Florida A&M +0.1 159.9 50% 59–67 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Long Beach State +7.2 151.8 74% 75–81 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Cal State Fullerton +5.9 177.1 70% 79–86 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Lamar -0.1 140.7 50% 51–63 ✗
Campbell @ Elon +8.1 168.7 77% 82–83 ✓
Texas @ Alabama +12.8 180.1 88% 92–88 ✗
San Francisco @ Pepperdine -7.0 136.5 26% 80–60 ✓
Oregon State @ Portland +2.5 148.2 59% 76–82 ✓
Maryland @ UCLA +14.4 147.2 90% 55–67 ✓
San José State @ Grand Canyon +13.5 139.4 89% 58–76 ✓
St. Thomas @ Oral Roberts -6.2 150.6 29% 82–71 ✓
North Dakota @ Kansas City +2.0 146.1 57% 81–79 ✗
UC San Diego @ UC Riverside -10.5 152.2 17% 69–66 ✓
Weber State @ Northern Colorado +5.5 169.6 69% 76–71 ✗
Idaho State @ Northern Arizona -5.2 138.0 32% 81–79 ✓
Southern Utah @ California Baptist +18.7 148.3 96% 55–58 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ New Mexico State +1.5 144.9 55% 59–55 ✗
Mississippi State @ Kentucky +12.2 154.4 87% 68–92 ✓
UT Martin @ Southern Indiana -7.3 137.0 25% 73–56 ✓
Utah State @ Boise State -4.5 149.5 34% 93–68 ✓
Wyoming @ Nevada +1.8 149.6 56% 83–92 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Santa Clara +12.2 148.9 87% 72–103 ✓
BYU @ Utah -16.7 165.3 6% 89–84 ✓
Fresno State @ San Diego State +11.1 148.6 84% 52–71 ✓
UC Irvine @ Hawai'i +8.9 131.5 79% 66–67 ✓
Illinois @ Iowa -0.1 144.5 50% 75–69 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Richmond +13.4 154.4 89% 67–65 ✗
Memphis @ Florida Atlantic +4.0 152.7 64% 78–89 ✓
Cleveland State @ Detroit Mercy +9.6 165.2 81% 84–94 ✓
Canisius @ Iona +14.4 143.4 90% 48–74 ✓
Charlotte @ Rice -2.3 143.8 42% 74–73 ✓
UAB @ East Carolina -11.5 148.7 15% 87–85 ✓
Merrimack @ Saint Peter's +2.4 131.4 59% 63–76 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Sacred Heart -5.7 155.1 30% 70–60 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Green Bay -1.0 147.4 47% 78–80 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Robert Morris +7.0 151.0 74% 79–74 ✗
Siena @ Mount St. Mary's -4.6 138.9 34% 67–50 ✓
Marist @ Rider -14.3 125.3 10% 71–49 ✓
Niagara @ Manhattan +8.8 145.9 79% 70–79 ✓
North Texas @ Wichita State +8.9 129.0 79% 67–78 ✓
Wright State @ Oakland +4.4 163.5 65% 94–84 ✗
IU Indianapolis @ Milwaukee +11.9 174.5 86% 83–95 ✓
Cincinnati @ UCF +7.7 147.8 76% 72–73 ✓
Northwestern @ Rutgers -7.7 146.1 24% 75–77 ✗
Ohio State @ Washington +0.7 156.7 53% 74–81 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.