Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | NMSU -175 MTSU +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +4 | 114 | Lost |
| Massey | NMSU -1.6 (-5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.1 (-31.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -1.2 (-5.2) | 142.9 (-28.9) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NMSU -1.9 (-5.9) | 140.5 (-26.5) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -2.0 (-6.0) | 141.0 (-27.0) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -1.0 (-5.0) | 141.8 (-27.8) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MTSU 86 – 85 NMSU |
| Feb 28, 2025 | MTSU 71 – 66 NMSU |
| Jan 31, 2025 | NMSU 61 – 57 MTSU |
| Feb 16, 2024 | MTSU 76 – 69 NMSU |
| Jan 21, 2024 | NMSU 73 – 62 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 11-9 |
| Home | 10-5 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#129) | 4.3 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#136) | 0.59 (#123) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#127) | 0.67 (#123) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#100) | 0.561 (#79) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.9% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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