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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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22–16 on winners spread MAE 10.4 38 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Belmont @ Southern Illinois	-2.9	157.8	40%	73–68	✓
Saint Mary's @ Santa Clara	+1.4	154.5	55%	54–62	✓
Wyoming @ Fresno State	-2.6	145.1	41%	60–63	✗
South Carolina Upstate @ High Point	+17.9	160.3	95%	69–89	✓
Robert Morris @ Northern Kentucky	+6.5	155.5	72%	92–89	✗
Long Island University @ Fairleigh Dickinson	-8.2	149.4	23%	66–59	✓
Campbell @ UNC Wilmington	+9.3	150.0	80%	75–78	✓
The Citadel @ VMI	+6.4	144.0	72%	82–68	✗
Bellarmine @ Eastern Kentucky	+3.9	158.6	64%	69–89	✓
Austin Peay @ Lipscomb	+4.0	148.9	64%	78–82	✓
BYU @ Texas Tech	-0.6	159.2	48%	71–84	✗
Louisville @ Pittsburgh	-8.2	152.5	23%	100–59	✓
New Mexico @ San Diego State	+0.6	149.7	52%	79–83	✓
Long Beach State @ Cal State Northridge	+6.8	163.2	73%	87–80	✗
Cal State Fullerton @ UC Riverside	-3.5	163.5	38%	72–81	✗
St. John's @ Villanova	+1.4	149.1	55%	86–79	✗
Omaha @ Oral Roberts	+2.7	152.2	60%	73–62	✗
Ole Miss @ Mississippi State	+1.6	149.4	56%	68–67	✗
Abilene Christian @ Southern Utah	-4.2	148.1	35%	52–74	✗
Portland @ Loyola Marymount	+9.4	146.3	80%	71–58	✗
Hawai'i @ UC Santa Barbara	-5.5	143.7	31%	62–77	✗
Montana @ Montana State	+6.4	149.4	72%	67–76	✓
Idaho @ Weber State	+4.8	159.0	67%	75–67	✗
Tarleton State @ Utah Tech	+0.5	160.6	52%	71–75	✓
Gonzaga @ Seattle U	-18.5	148.9	5%	71–50	✓
Kansas State @ Oklahoma State	+4.2	177.1	65%	83–84	✓
Northern Colorado @ Sacramento State	-5.2	167.0	32%	89–93	✗
Florida Atlantic @ Temple	-3.3	157.0	38%	79–73	✓
Penn State @ Maryland	-1.5	150.7	45%	73–96	✗
American University @ Army	-4.1	154.2	36%	78–67	✓
Wichita State @ South Florida	+6.9	163.6	74%	86–85	✗
Charlotte @ East Carolina	-4.3	144.2	35%	73–70	✓
Oakland @ Green Bay	-3.1	162.2	39%	88–63	✓
Milwaukee @ Purdue Fort Wayne	+2.6	150.9	59%	82–100	✓
Tulsa @ UAB	-3.0	164.0	39%	99–77	✓
North Texas @ Tulane	-0.1	130.1	50%	71–63	✓
UTSA @ Memphis	+24.6	139.4	99%	69–95	✓
Arizona State @ Houston	+16.8	143.6	94%	73–103	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.