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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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16–13 on winners spread MAE 10.3 29 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Washington State @ San Francisco	+5.5	144.7	69%	80–85	✓
Northeastern @ Monmouth	+3.1	149.9	61%	68–81	✓
Stonehill @ Saint Francis	-1.9	142.9	43%	61–63	✗
Vermont @ UAlbany	-3.4	148.5	38%	68–75	✗
Drexel @ Towson	+4.9	121.6	67%	58–59	✓
Iona @ Saint Peter's	+1.6	146.8	56%	63–77	✓
Sacred Heart @ Rider	-3.4	142.1	38%	105–85	✓
Cornell @ Brown	+0.2	169.4	51%	89–67	✗
Columbia @ Yale	+9.8	157.0	81%	74–91	✓
Fairfield @ Siena	+7.2	144.1	74%	77–85	✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Niagara	-3.4	135.8	38%	68–58	✓
Merrimack @ Marist	+11.2	125.8	85%	68–55	✗
Manhattan @ Quinnipiac	+16.3	158.9	93%	92–98	✓
Central Connecticut @ Mercyhurst	-1.3	134.5	45%	61–79	✗
Pennsylvania @ Harvard	+4.5	148.4	66%	63–64	✓
Wagner @ Fairleigh Dickinson	-1.3	150.1	45%	61–68	✗
New Hampshire @ Maine	+1.1	124.9	54%	65–48	✗
UMBC @ Binghamton	-7.4	145.0	25%	78–60	✓
Bryant @ NJIT	+1.6	132.8	56%	55–79	✓
Saint Joseph's @ VCU	+18.0	153.5	95%	72–79	✓
Prairie View A&M @ Alcorn State	-5.1	160.4	32%	75–76	✗
Long Island University @ Le Moyne	-0.5	152.4	48%	77–83	✗
McNeese @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	-5.4	138.7	31%	69–53	✓
George Washington @ George Mason	+1.6	155.5	56%	64–69	✓
Alabama A&M @ Alabama State	+0.1	146.8	50%	73–69	✗
Princeton @ Dartmouth	+5.0	146.0	68%	69–71	✓
Providence @ Marquette	-3.0	177.0	39%	104–105	✗
East Texas A&M @ Incarnate Word	+10.5	143.5	83%	80–58	✗
Bethune-Cookman @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff	+1.8	160.5	56%	87–82	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.