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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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31–17 on winners spread MAE 8.5 48 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Memphis @ South Florida	+8.2	162.1	77%	66–87	✓
UNC Asheville @ High Point	+13.8	153.3	90%	48–74	✓
Longwood @ Presbyterian	+2.7	140.6	60%	65–72	✓
Gardner-Webb @ Radford	+20.4	164.5	97%	70–82	✓
IU Indianapolis @ Wright State	+14.8	167.5	91%	73–85	✓
Wagner @ Mercyhurst	+5.3	137.5	69%	83–80	✗
Stonehill @ New Haven	+3.3	119.5	62%	51–64	✓
Long Island University @ Saint Francis	-11.7	152.1	14%	91–89	✓
Le Moyne @ Central Connecticut	+3.1	148.4	61%	77–78	✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Chicago State	+0.3	139.7	51%	60–59	✗
UAlbany @ NJIT	+3.8	142.4	64%	81–63	✗
Monmouth @ UNC Wilmington	+9.1	139.5	80%	69–79	✓
Drexel @ Northeastern	+0.1	145.3	50%	70–61	✗
William & Mary @ Campbell	-3.3	168.3	38%	83–84	✗
Charleston @ North Carolina A&T	-3.4	150.9	38%	74–61	✓
Samford @ The Citadel	-9.5	145.1	19%	78–75	✓
Chattanooga @ Mercer	+12.5	152.4	87%	94–90	✗
Austin Peay @ North Florida	-11.9	165.3	14%	77–76	✓
Alabama State @ Bethune-Cookman	+6.4	149.9	72%	71–82	✓
Kansas City @ North Dakota	+10.7	149.4	83%	70–85	✓
Hampton @ Hofstra	+12.2	138.5	87%	43–79	✓
Texas State @ South Alabama	+6.1	139.5	71%	90–82	✗
Arkansas State @ Louisiana	-8.0	144.9	23%	79–62	✓
Georgia Southern @ Georgia State	+1.0	155.9	54%	64–66	✓
Central Arkansas @ Stetson	-9.4	150.7	20%	88–76	✓
California Baptist @ Utah Valley	+7.4	143.6	75%	46–65	✓
Utah Tech @ UT Arlington	+3.7	141.1	63%	50–63	✓
Southern Utah @ Tarleton State	+8.9	155.6	79%	74–78	✓
UT Martin @ Little Rock	-5.5	133.2	31%	65–67	✗
Southern Indiana @ Western Illinois	-3.1	138.0	39%	77–70	✓
Lindenwood @ Tennessee State	+3.7	162.1	63%	80–89	✓
Morehead State @ Eastern Illinois	+0.0	139.3	50%	73–70	✗
Prairie View A&M @ Mississippi Valley State	-12.2	155.9	13%	72–62	✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Tennessee Tech	-2.7	136.6	40%	52–62	✗
Texas Southern @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff	+3.4	160.4	62%	83–64	✗
Cal State Northridge @ UC Santa Barbara	+5.7	162.7	70%	85–83	✗
South Dakota @ Denver	+7.2	174.3	74%	70–90	✓
Montana State @ Weber State	-1.0	152.1	46%	79–82	✗
Montana @ Idaho State	-1.4	150.3	45%	69–73	✗
Idaho @ Portland State	+5.0	143.4	67%	67–77	✓
Tulane @ North Texas	+5.6	132.8	70%	77–71	✗
Alabama A&M @ Florida A&M	+0.6	138.1	52%	63–61	✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Riverside	+6.0	150.3	71%	65–93	✓
UC Davis @ Cal State Fullerton	+1.7	159.6	56%	92–93	✓
UC Irvine @ Long Beach State	-5.6	142.7	30%	69–58	✓
Eastern Washington @ Sacramento State	-0.5	167.1	48%	102–94	✓
Cal Poly @ Hawai'i	+14.1	161.3	90%	86–75	✗
Akron @ Ball State	-16.3	147.5	7%	78–65	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.