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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
7–6 on winners
spread MAE 6.7
13 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Louisville
@
North Carolina
|
-1.5 | 158.9 | 45% | 74–77 | ✗ |
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
@
SE Louisiana
|
-3.2 | 129.1 | 38% | 73–68 | ✓ |
Nicholls
@
Lamar
|
+5.2 | 146.5 | 68% | 53–52 | ✗ |
Incarnate Word
@
Northwestern State
|
+1.6 | 145.9 | 56% | 49–54 | ✓ |
LSU New Orleans
@
Stephen F. Austin
|
+12.1 | 152.4 | 86% | 77–73 | ✗ |
UT Rio Grande Valley
@
McNeese
|
+9.7 | 144.6 | 81% | 68–75 | ✓ |
Houston Christian
@
East Texas A&M
|
+2.8 | 138.7 | 60% | 69–68 | ✗ |
Mississippi Valley State
@
Grambling
|
+19.6 | 137.2 | 96% | 62–83 | ✓ |
Houston
@
Kansas
|
-1.3 | 135.2 | 45% | 56–69 | ✗ |
Saint Francis
@
New Haven
|
+7.2 | 138.8 | 74% | 73–67 | ✗ |
Miami (OH)
@
Eastern Michigan
|
-8.9 | 155.0 | 21% | 74–64 | ✓ |
George Washington
@
La Salle
|
-8.7 | 146.1 | 21% | 104–77 | ✓ |
Washington
@
Rutgers
|
-7.9 | 146.1 | 24% | 79–72 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.