Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | SFA -900 NOLA +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NOLA +4 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | SFA -11.6 (-15.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.1 (-2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -12.9 (-16.9) | 147.0 (+3.0) | 87% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -11.3 (-15.3) | 147.0 (+3.0) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -11.6 (-15.6) | 147.0 (+3.0) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -11.7 (-15.7) | 148.2 (+1.8) | 86% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | SFA 84 – 79 NOLA |
| Feb 4, 2025 | SFA 88 – 85 NOLA |
| Dec 30, 2023 | SFA 80 – 51 NOLA |
| Feb 15, 2021 | SFA 89 – 79 NOLA |
| Jan 2, 2021 | SFA 78 – 67 NOLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | NOLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-6 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 20-2 | 12-10 |
| Home | 15-1 | 5-6 |
| Away | 12-4 | 9-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 77.7 |
| Massey | 6.4 (#94) | -2.3 (#203) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#60) | -0.40 (#209) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.16 (#61) | -0.40 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.558 (#69) | 0.504 (#177) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | NOLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 34.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 29.1% |
Game Analysis
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