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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
25–12 on winners
spread MAE 8.7
37 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Duke
@
Notre Dame
|
-16.4 | 142.2 | 7% | 100–56 | ✓ |
Cincinnati
@
Texas Tech
|
+10.8 | 142.0 | 84% | 68–80 | ✓ |
NC State
@
Virginia
|
+4.3 | 157.3 | 65% | 61–90 | ✓ |
Saint Louis
@
Dayton
|
-8.5 | 158.0 | 22% | 62–77 | ✗ |
West Virginia
@
Oklahoma State
|
+0.9 | 144.6 | 53% | 84–91 | ✓ |
Northwestern
@
Indiana
|
+8.4 | 149.1 | 78% | 72–68 | ✗ |
Marquette
@
Georgetown
|
+4.1 | 152.4 | 65% | 76–60 | ✗ |
Western Michigan
@
Bowling Green
|
+13.0 | 150.2 | 88% | 88–79 | ✗ |
Northern Illinois
@
Toledo
|
+13.8 | 149.9 | 90% | 69–79 | ✓ |
Massachusetts
@
Ball State
|
-6.6 | 143.4 | 28% | 73–74 | ✗ |
Central Michigan
@
Kent State
|
+11.8 | 160.3 | 86% | 81–83 | ✓ |
Buffalo
@
Akron
|
+13.2 | 166.8 | 89% | 85–99 | ✓ |
Louisiana
@
Troy
|
+12.6 | 137.0 | 87% | 59–78 | ✓ |
Old Dominion
@
Marshall
|
+7.6 | 159.2 | 75% | 88–97 | ✓ |
Kentucky
@
South Carolina
|
-8.1 | 150.3 | 23% | 72–63 | ✓ |
Coastal Carolina
@
Georgia State
|
-0.9 | 139.1 | 47% | 76–71 | ✓ |
Southern Indiana
@
Morehead State
|
+8.4 | 144.5 | 78% | 63–64 | ✓ |
Bradley
@
UIC
|
+3.9 | 145.5 | 64% | 86–93 | ✓ |
Minnesota
@
Michigan
|
+23.6 | 146.7 | 98% | 67–77 | ✓ |
Southern Miss
@
Arkansas State
|
+9.0 | 159.2 | 79% | 84–89 | ✓ |
Arizona
@
Baylor
|
-11.1 | 160.9 | 16% | 87–80 | ✓ |
Iowa State
@
Utah
|
-15.1 | 151.6 | 8% | 75–59 | ✓ |
Fresno State
@
Colorado State
|
+6.1 | 142.9 | 71% | 70–74 | ✓ |
Arizona State
@
TCU
|
+6.2 | 151.7 | 71% | 78–90 | ✓ |
Wyoming
@
Boise State
|
+6.0 | 150.9 | 71% | 62–72 | ✓ |
Miami
@
Florida State
|
-3.7 | 159.9 | 37% | 83–73 | ✓ |
San José State
@
Air Force
|
-7.3 | 138.9 | 25% | 86–80 | ✓ |
Auburn
@
Oklahoma
|
-1.9 | 164.3 | 43% | 79–91 | ✗ |
Tennessee
@
Missouri
|
-6.5 | 147.1 | 28% | 69–73 | ✗ |
UCF
@
BYU
|
+11.9 | 168.5 | 86% | 97–84 | ✗ |
New Mexico
@
Nevada
|
-0.6 | 152.1 | 48% | 60–67 | ✗ |
USC
@
UCLA
|
+7.1 | 154.9 | 74% | 62–81 | ✓ |
Bucknell
@
Army
|
+3.1 | 146.1 | 61% | 75–73 | ✗ |
Wake Forest
@
Boston College
|
-5.3 | 144.2 | 32% | 67–68 | ✗ |
Morgan State
@
South Carolina State
|
+0.8 | 155.1 | 53% | 90–83 | ✗ |
The Citadel
@
Furman
|
+16.6 | 139.9 | 93% | 51–72 | ✓ |
Oakland
@
IU Indianapolis
|
-7.5 | 180.5 | 25% | 86–74 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.