And with the way you look I understand you're not impressed. "Alison" - Elvis Costello
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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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16–8 on winners spread MAE 10.1 24 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Incarnate Word @ Duke +30.5 140.6 90% 46–72 ✓
Coppin State @ NC State +27.0 132.6 91% 56–66 ✓
Jacksonville @ Florida Atlantic +9.1 153.2 78% 63–85 ✓
Charlotte @ Davidson +9.2 144.7 81% 71–75 ✓
Monmouth @ Princeton +12.6 147.4 86% 67–71 ✓
Penn State @ Rutgers -5.8 160.3 35% 76–80 ✗
Rhode Island @ Brown -1.7 147.5 50% 80–84 ✗
Morgan State @ Xavier +19.9 149.7 90% 58–119 ✓
North Carolina Central @ West Virginia +21.6 146.6 90% 45–79 ✓
UAlbany @ Syracuse +6.2 152.4 74% 85–102 ✓
Charleston @ Saint Joseph's +6.9 148.6 75% 78–75 ✗
Troy @ Houston +21.2 133.8 90% 42–62 ✓
Tennessee State @ Western Kentucky +15.2 154.0 88% 60–84 ✓
Wyoming @ South Dakota +4.7 153.4 70% 81–82 ✓
Southern Miss @ Tulane +5.8 146.5 74% 58–86 ✓
Providence @ DePaul +5.0 136.6 71% 70–63 ✗
Michigan @ Arkansas -0.6 142.3 48% 87–89 ✗
Wisconsin @ Illinois +8.7 153.9 78% 80–86 ✓
Kansas City @ Portland +2.4 140.1 54% 69–64 ✗
Cornell @ California +7.1 159.6 68% 88–80 ✗
Long Beach State @ San Diego +2.9 133.3 59% 76–70 ✗
Eastern Washington @ Washington +7.2 143.7 76% 69–87 ✓
Norfolk State @ Baylor +18.6 148.3 89% 69–94 ✓
Long Island University @ UMass Lowell +9.1 148.4 83% 62–69 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.