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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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16–3 on winners spread MAE 9.7 19 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
UT Martin @ Alabama State +6.2 145.2 73% 93–103 ✓
Marshall @ Wright State +7.4 145.2 77% 79–88 ✓
NJIT @ Delaware State +6.0 137.1 70% 59–71 ✓
Maine @ Duquesne +1.9 132.7 54% 61–56 ✗
Dartmouth @ Notre Dame +16.1 143.3 87% 65–77 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Villanova +28.5 149.2 91% 72–86 ✓
Bryant @ St. John's +17.3 158.7 88% 77–99 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Purdue Fort Wayne +12.4 150.8 84% 76–78 ✓
Milwaukee @ Green Bay -3.9 149.4 30% 88–67 ✓
North Alabama @ East Carolina +4.0 139.3 68% 74–67 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Pittsburgh +18.6 148.5 88% 56–96 ✓
UTEP @ Louisville +11.9 140.6 86% 74–77 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ UL Monroe +10.7 147.8 86% 73–89 ✓
Colgate @ Kentucky +31.4 152.3 91% 67–78 ✓
North Dakota @ Utah Valley +8.2 143.7 75% 57–80 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Louisiana -4.5 139.4 37% 61–68 ✗
Fresno State @ BYU +22.0 154.5 89% 67–95 ✓
California Baptist @ San Diego State +16.4 143.9 86% 75–81 ✓
South Dakota State @ Nevada +8.4 137.6 79% 63–77 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.