I'm gonna tell you how it's gonna be. "Not Fade Away"-The Rolling Stones
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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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31–14 on winners spread MAE 8.2 45 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Kansas @ Iowa State +6.3 143.8 73% 57–74 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Radford +6.6 144.4 75% 75–79 ✓
UAB @ South Florida +0.8 156.0 50% 92–83 ✗
California @ North Carolina +12.2 154.6 86% 53–79 ✓
NC State @ Virginia Tech -2.0 135.4 40% 76–79 ✗
Richmond @ St. Bonaventure +13.3 135.6 86% 49–63 ✓
Massachusetts @ Fordham +1.3 152.2 54% 120–118 ✗
Duquesne @ George Washington +6.1 137.8 74% 73–65 ✗
George Mason @ Dayton +5.5 131.7 71% 67–59 ✗
Southern Illinois @ Missouri State +3.4 142.2 65% 73–51 ✗
Colgate @ Navy -0.5 138.9 49% 73–66 ✓
Holy Cross @ Bucknell +2.3 138.0 63% 82–86 ✓
Seton Hall @ Butler +9.7 134.1 79% 77–82 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Wright State +0.2 150.9 44% 120–113 ✗
IU Indianapolis @ Oakland +6.4 137.1 75% 59–72 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Cleveland State +5.5 136.0 75% 58–76 ✓
Wofford @ Chattanooga +0.4 148.6 53% 81–83 ✓
Samford @ Mercer -4.4 161.1 27% 75–74 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Furman +4.1 139.7 69% 70–73 ✓
The Citadel @ UNC Greensboro +16.4 133.0 90% 57–70 ✓
Penn State @ Michigan State +9.8 153.2 83% 85–90 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Tulane +1.0 156.3 53% 65–80 ✓
Troy @ UL Monroe -11.2 135.1 15% 77–58 ✓
Georgia @ Tennessee +10.9 132.8 80% 56–74 ✓
West Virginia @ Houston +10.9 128.0 84% 54–70 ✓
Utah @ TCU +4.3 140.3 72% 73–65 ✗
Murray State @ UIC +1.5 141.7 55% 93–97 ✓
Indiana State @ Bradley +13.1 155.9 85% 65–118 ✓
Georgia State @ Texas State +10.2 146.8 82% 80–94 ✓
Southern Miss @ South Alabama +13.7 137.3 87% 62–75 ✓
Cincinnati @ Colorado -1.5 132.5 44% 68–62 ✓
SMU @ Virginia -7.6 126.7 27% 54–52 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Florida State -1.3 149.4 48% 70–82 ✗
Rhode Island @ Loyola Chicago -1.5 145.6 44% 77–81 ✗
Illinois State @ Drake +8.5 127.1 82% 62–66 ✓
Omaha @ Denver -4.8 148.0 28% 80–62 ✓
Purdue @ Washington -7.5 142.5 18% 69–58 ✓
Texas @ Oklahoma +2.6 150.7 61% 77–73 ✗
Utah State @ UNLV -6.4 144.1 26% 62–65 ✗
Maine @ NJIT -8.8 130.7 19% 57–44 ✓
New Hampshire @ UMBC +12.5 150.0 82% 79–76 ✗
Bryant @ UAlbany +0.3 156.0 55% 89–79 ✗
Stony Brook @ Delaware +10.9 148.8 85% 74–84 ✓
Lipscomb @ Bellarmine -15.8 142.9 12% 87–53 ✓
West Georgia @ Florida Gulf Coast +11.6 142.2 84% 60–82 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.