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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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36–19 on winners spread MAE 9.5 55 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Duke @ Syracuse -19.2 141.9 13% 83–54 ✓
Missouri @ Tennessee +7.6 133.1 72% 81–85 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Presbyterian +9.5 146.7 82% 64–75 ✓
High Point @ Radford -2.5 144.2 36% 78–75 ✓
Winthrop @ Charleston Southern -1.7 157.2 48% 83–65 ✓
Cincinnati @ UCF +1.7 142.8 60% 93–83 ✗
Rice @ East Carolina +4.2 140.6 69% 73–60 ✗
Louisville @ Boston College -13.5 148.7 14% 84–58 ✓
George Mason @ George Washington -2.8 130.8 41% 53–50 ✓
Rhode Island @ Fordham -1.6 156.4 46% 79–80 ✗
Duquesne @ Richmond -2.5 133.4 46% 68–73 ✗
Valparaiso @ Indiana State +2.2 154.2 58% 62–80 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Missouri State -4.1 135.2 28% 66–61 ✓
Navy @ Boston University -0.1 132.0 48% 65–87 ✗
Loyola Maryland @ Lafayette +3.7 138.7 66% 71–58 ✗
American University @ Bucknell +1.1 143.3 60% 49–71 ✓
South Alabama @ Coastal Carolina -7.9 131.1 18% 84–59 ✓
UL Monroe @ Georgia State +4.7 146.7 68% 64–97 ✓
Texas State @ Old Dominion -2.9 143.7 38% 64–75 ✗
Troy @ James Madison +0.4 133.6 53% 61–64 ✓
Louisiana @ Georgia Southern +4.7 143.8 71% 82–83 ✓
Cleveland State @ Northern Kentucky -2.8 132.6 39% 75–85 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Robert Morris +11.0 143.5 87% 56–71 ✓
Wright State @ Purdue Fort Wayne +5.8 159.8 71% 64–87 ✓
Lipscomb @ West Georgia -12.0 143.5 16% 76–67 ✓
Chattanooga @ Wofford +2.4 144.2 57% 79–70 ✗
Western Carolina @ Furman +15.6 143.7 90% 75–84 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ The Citadel -13.8 131.5 13% 76–61 ✓
Queens University @ Central Arkansas -5.1 146.5 34% 63–47 ✓
Mercer @ Samford +10.9 157.9 84% 79–100 ✓
Tulsa @ Memphis +16.9 147.0 90% 71–83 ✓
West Virginia @ TCU -0.9 130.7 53% 60–65 ✗
Tulane @ UTSA +0.2 145.2 55% 61–60 ✗
Southern Illinois @ Evansville -0.4 141.6 50% 68–59 ✓
Illinois State @ UIC +3.8 152.7 61% 81–79 ✗
North Alabama @ Austin Peay -4.8 147.8 33% 74–64 ✓
Illinois @ Rutgers -5.6 161.5 31% 73–82 ✗
Creighton @ Providence -1.9 137.3 39% 80–69 ✓
Colorado @ Utah +6.4 140.6 76% 59–72 ✓
SMU @ Virginia Tech -9.8 146.3 18% 81–75 ✓
Belmont @ Bradley +7.0 156.4 76% 80–77 ✗
Villanova @ DePaul -2.5 141.6 42% 59–49 ✓
Arkansas State @ Marshall -3.5 147.3 34% 72–77 ✗
Arkansas @ Texas +6.3 141.9 72% 78–70 ✗
LSU @ Georgia +6.9 141.6 78% 62–81 ✓
Colorado State @ New Mexico +7.3 146.9 81% 65–87 ✓
Nebraska @ Washington -1.5 143.8 47% 86–72 ✓
NC State @ California +1.2 141.0 59% 62–74 ✓
Wake Forest @ Stanford +3.6 137.6 68% 79–73 ✗
NJIT @ Maine +11.8 133.7 86% 74–78 ✓
UAlbany @ Bryant +9.9 156.8 81% 68–63 ✗
North Carolina A&T @ Charleston +12.4 159.3 85% 63–66 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Binghamton -2.2 148.0 43% 54–66 ✗
UNC Wilmington @ Delaware -4.1 153.5 27% 77–67 ✓
Towson @ Stony Brook -7.1 131.9 22% 66–59 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.