If I had my time again / I would do it all the same. "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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37–16 on winners spread MAE 9.3 53 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Maryland @ Ohio State +1.7 151.2 63% 70–73 ✓
Temple @ South Florida +0.5 151.9 54% 91–100 ✓
Long Island University @ Wagner -1.5 124.6 41% 60–47 ✓
Le Moyne @ Saint Francis +3.9 144.9 68% 78–86 ✓
Mercyhurst @ Chicago State -1.1 135.5 42% 78–85 ✗
UMBC @ New Hampshire -6.8 152.8 31% 78–79 ✗
Youngstown State @ Oakland +3.7 135.8 62% 84–75 ✗
Elon @ Campbell +1.6 135.9 64% 58–76 ✓
Hampton @ Monmouth +1.4 144.9 58% 63–68 ✓
William & Mary @ Drexel +1.7 143.7 59% 66–86 ✓
Northeastern @ Hofstra +2.4 133.9 60% 77–68 ✗
Jacksonville @ Stetson -8.4 146.6 19% 74–65 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Florida Gulf Coast +5.8 145.1 74% 92–74 ✗
Canisius @ Quinnipiac +14.7 147.5 89% 71–89 ✓
Niagara @ Merrimack +8.3 131.1 78% 59–64 ✓
Marist @ Fairfield -6.0 135.5 29% 56–59 ✗
Rider @ Sacred Heart +3.8 143.7 62% 77–89 ✓
Iona @ Mount St. Mary's +3.7 139.3 62% 70–67 ✗
Saint Peter's @ Siena +4.2 128.7 64% 63–77 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Jacksonville State +2.6 138.5 66% 63–77 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Kennesaw State +1.1 152.4 56% 69–76 ✓
Sam Houston @ Florida International -0.1 143.7 51% 82–85 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Morehead State -0.2 138.8 48% 80–51 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Central Connecticut +10.7 135.0 86% 66–87 ✓
Montana State @ Northern Arizona -0.1 143.5 47% 64–69 ✗
Montana @ Northern Colorado +6.3 154.1 77% 86–78 ✗
Bellarmine @ North Florida +12.0 161.2 84% 88–95 ✓
UT Arlington @ Utah Valley +7.2 147.4 79% 73–94 ✓
St. Thomas @ South Dakota State +3.2 155.4 65% 86–102 ✓
North Dakota State @ Kansas City -5.3 139.7 34% 78–72 ✓
North Dakota @ Omaha +6.6 157.8 80% 77–80 ✓
Western Illinois @ Tennessee State +8.5 143.5 79% 69–87 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Liberty +6.6 133.3 74% 53–77 ✓
Little Rock @ Southern Indiana -3.2 132.4 37% 74–56 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ UNC Asheville +6.1 153.1 77% 70–78 ✓
Portland State @ Idaho +0.0 147.6 44% 76–69 ✗
Sacramento State @ Eastern Washington +8.9 134.1 77% 80–83 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Gonzaga +17.9 150.6 90% 53–73 ✓
Saint Mary's @ San Francisco -1.4 133.2 52% 64–65 ✗
Abilene Christian @ Utah Tech +0.4 137.3 47% 86–72 ✗
South Dakota @ Denver -2.3 160.2 41% 86–79 ✓
Lindenwood @ UT Martin +4.5 144.3 70% 52–51 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Bakersfield -2.0 140.9 42% 81–75 ✓
UC Riverside @ UC San Diego +12.5 143.1 86% 71–91 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal State Northridge +15.7 146.5 88% 63–82 ✓
Hawai'i @ Cal Poly -0.4 150.4 51% 63–79 ✗
UC Davis @ Long Beach State -2.5 132.7 28% 73–65 ✓
San Diego @ Pacific +3.1 143.7 67% 69–71 ✓
Santa Clara @ Portland -15.4 155.5 15% 97–50 ✓
Tarleton State @ Seattle U +10.5 130.4 84% 54–91 ✓
Southern Utah @ California Baptist +10.6 138.7 84% 60–57 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Tennessee Tech -0.5 139.9 44% 75–58 ✓
Washington State @ Oregon State +7.5 148.1 77% 74–82 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.