Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | UNT +130 TLSA -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +5 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | TLSA -9.4 (+14.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.7 (-2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -8.4 (+13.4) | 134.9 (+4.1) | 19% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -5.5 (+10.5) | 137.0 (+2.0) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -8.8 (+13.8) | 136.2 (+2.8) | 20% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -8.9 (+13.9) | 134.0 (+5.0) | 17% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | TLSA 90 – 84 UNT |
| Jan 29, 2026 | TLSA 82 – 66 UNT |
| Mar 14, 2025 | UNT 77 – 59 TLSA |
| Feb 20, 2025 | UNT 63 – 44 TLSA |
| Feb 8, 2024 | UNT 68 – 55 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 30-8 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-5 | 16-2 |
| Away | 5-7 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 83.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#173) | 12.8 (#41) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#158) | 2.66 (#30) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#168) | 3.55 (#32) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#191) | 0.615 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 41.7% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 58.4% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 34.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.6% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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