Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | MTSU -218 SHSU +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +1 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | MTSU -4.8 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (-21.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -4.1 (-3.1) | 150.8 (-15.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -3.4 (-2.4) | 148.0 (-13.0) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -4.5 (-3.5) | 147.3 (-12.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -3.8 (-2.8) | 147.1 (-12.1) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | SHSU 78 – 70 MTSU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | MTSU 74 – 70 SHSU |
| Jan 24, 2025 | MTSU 77 – 75 SHSU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | SHSU 81 – 64 MTSU |
| Jan 13, 2024 | SHSU 60 – 51 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 13-7 |
| Home | 11-4 | 13-1 |
| Away | 5-8 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 80.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 5.8 (#103) | 4.8 (#110) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.89 (#106) | 0.86 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#110) | 1.03 (#108) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#49) | 0.569 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 14.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 37.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 29.6% |
Game Analysis
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