They smelled of pubs and Wormwood Scrubs and too many right wing meetings. "Down in the Tube Station at Midnight" - The Jam
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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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86–49 on winners spread MAE 9.7 135 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Rider @ Fairfield +10.8 137.0 86% 62–68 ✓
Cleveland State @ Oakland +14.9 163.8 89% 74–97 ✓
Wright State @ Detroit Mercy -6.4 146.7 35% 84–82 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Green Bay +10.1 155.4 84% 59–75 ✓
Merrimack @ Siena +5.0 134.3 68% 63–59 ✗
Saint Peter's @ Mount St. Mary's -2.4 138.6 31% 65–70 ✗
Niagara @ Iona +11.1 139.7 87% 53–71 ✓
Marist @ Sacred Heart -8.7 134.7 20% 76–72 ✓
Canisius @ Manhattan +3.9 138.8 66% 70–64 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ Milwaukee +1.0 149.4 59% 85–67 ✗
Akron @ Bowling Green -0.5 163.6 59% 77–67 ✓
USC @ Minnesota +2.4 144.6 61% 70–69 ✗
UNLV @ Colorado State +9.2 148.0 77% 62–70 ✓
Nebraska @ Indiana +2.9 144.4 65% 83–77 ✗
Boston College @ Louisville +19.6 145.5 90% 62–75 ✓
Tennessee @ Florida +4.2 146.4 71% 67–91 ✓
Kansas @ West Virginia -2.3 137.5 43% 75–86 ✗
VCU @ George Mason -0.1 145.1 57% 80–86 ✗
Fordham @ St. Bonaventure +7.8 132.8 76% 81–77 ✗
Georgia Tech @ Miami +15.8 151.4 89% 81–91 ✓
NC State @ Florida State -4.4 156.1 34% 113–69 ✓
DePaul @ UConn +17.4 138.1 89% 60–72 ✓
Wisconsin @ Michigan +24.0 158.1 89% 91–88 ✗
Houston @ Baylor +1.1 143.5 44% 77–55 ✗
LSU @ Vanderbilt +12.9 159.7 86% 73–84 ✓
Evansville @ Indiana State +4.2 139.0 68% 72–69 ✗
Army @ Boston University +6.5 146.1 75% 91–100 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Western Michigan -2.1 143.4 43% 62–79 ✗
Mercyhurst @ Wagner +0.4 133.2 50% 70–69 ✗
Central Connecticut @ Le Moyne +0.6 145.4 57% 69–59 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ New Haven +3.5 128.9 52% 55–65 ✓
New Hampshire @ UMBC +6.3 139.6 71% 74–75 ✓
Western Carolina @ The Citadel -4.6 146.4 30% 77–79 ✗
Troy @ Louisiana -9.5 139.9 19% 90–70 ✓
App State @ Coastal Carolina +0.2 136.7 46% 62–67 ✓
Penn State @ Purdue +18.2 145.8 90% 85–93 ✓
SMU @ Duke +13.3 160.1 84% 75–82 ✓
Georgia @ South Carolina -4.6 161.2 36% 75–70 ✓
Dartmouth @ Cornell +5.2 159.7 72% 102–91 ✗
Lehigh @ Colgate +10.8 144.0 82% 78–77 ✗
Rhode Island @ Davidson +3.7 132.3 66% 70–45 ✗
Winthrop @ South Carolina Upstate -1.2 152.4 45% 71–50 ✓
High Point @ Charleston Southern -8.1 158.3 24% 84–82 ✓
St. John's @ Creighton +0.8 149.6 57% 90–73 ✗
Syracuse @ Pittsburgh +1.5 137.4 53% 83–72 ✗
Lafayette @ Navy +11.8 139.3 85% 50–76 ✓
Denver @ South Dakota +0.2 160.7 59% 72–82 ✓
North Dakota State @ Omaha -6.2 149.0 25% 78–76 ✓
Yale @ Princeton -11.9 139.3 17% 60–76 ✗
Buffalo @ Ohio +0.8 151.2 51% 80–91 ✓
Harvard @ Columbia +9.3 141.9 82% 79–54 ✗
Brown @ Pennsylvania +5.7 138.8 67% 73–81 ✓
Chicago State @ Stonehill +1.6 129.5 54% 82–85 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Binghamton -5.0 143.6 34% 73–68 ✓
Maine @ NJIT +1.8 130.3 47% 74–70 ✗
Bryant @ UAlbany +2.4 133.5 62% 46–71 ✓
William & Mary @ Drexel -5.7 143.0 28% 58–64 ✗
Towson @ Northeastern +0.4 134.7 52% 87–78 ✗
Monmouth @ Hofstra +10.7 138.8 84% 64–67 ✓
Wofford @ Mercer +7.2 151.8 78% 97–109 ✓
VMI @ Furman +12.3 144.5 86% 48–69 ✓
Georgia Southern @ South Alabama +3.4 149.0 62% 71–87 ✓
Queens University @ North Florida -9.2 161.2 23% 89–82 ✓
North Alabama @ Bellarmine +5.1 144.4 70% 82–73 ✗
Austin Peay @ Stetson -10.7 142.5 16% 81–69 ✓
Stanford @ Virginia +11.4 146.1 82% 55–70 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Radford +2.1 147.4 66% 91–72 ✗
Villanova @ Marquette -8.1 137.7 21% 76–73 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ George Washington +17.6 148.1 90% 66–101 ✓
South Florida @ Tulsa +7.2 164.8 73% 93–78 ✗
Kansas State @ Arizona State +0.2 164.1 58% 84–87 ✓
Presbyterian @ Longwood +2.3 134.6 60% 70–77 ✓
New Mexico @ Air Force -17.4 132.7 12% 91–49 ✓
Kent State @ Central Michigan -8.0 154.5 23% 85–87 ✗
UL Monroe @ Southern Miss +12.8 154.9 87% 60–70 ✓
Texas State @ Arkansas State +10.5 149.3 84% 82–83 ✓
West Georgia @ Jacksonville -1.7 140.5 44% 43–75 ✗
Abilene Christian @ UT Arlington +5.0 129.4 69% 72–82 ✓
Delaware @ Louisiana Tech +2.5 127.8 64% 68–70 ✓
Ball State @ Massachusetts +10.0 141.7 83% 71–79 ✓
Oklahoma @ Texas A&M +6.2 158.9 67% 76–83 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Morehead State -2.3 146.3 39% 69–71 ✗
Liberty @ Sam Houston +2.7 150.2 59% 82–74 ✗
Arizona @ TCU -5.6 152.7 23% 86–73 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Iowa State +18.2 159.8 89% 71–83 ✓
Valparaiso @ Murray State +11.9 148.7 84% 79–92 ✓
Saint Louis @ La Salle -17.8 150.9 13% 84–72 ✓
Jackson State @ Alabama State +12.9 151.4 87% 75–64 ✗
Holy Cross @ American University +7.6 135.9 75% 84–73 ✗
Providence @ Xavier +0.0 167.4 49% 84–97 ✓
California @ Virginia Tech +4.5 150.1 74% 75–78 ✓
Saint Francis @ Long Island University +16.0 149.9 90% 63–67 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ East Tennessee State +13.4 146.8 87% 60–86 ✓
Old Dominion @ James Madison +5.3 148.6 68% 69–70 ✓
Marshall @ Georgia State -6.3 145.1 29% 73–81 ✗
Lipscomb @ Florida Gulf Coast +1.4 155.3 55% 84–77 ✗
Central Arkansas @ Eastern Kentucky +1.1 151.2 61% 75–79 ✓
Utah Tech @ Utah Valley +11.3 147.8 86% 76–92 ✓
Western Kentucky @ UTEP -2.7 146.4 41% 68–56 ✓
Norfolk State @ Delaware State -3.3 130.7 31% 66–64 ✓
Howard @ Maryland Eastern Shore -2.2 129.2 33% 57–69 ✗
Samford @ Chattanooga +0.4 143.4 55% 79–88 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Northwestern State -4.5 134.6 30% 78–79 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ Western Illinois -3.1 141.1 36% 59–54 ✓
Little Rock @ Lindenwood +9.0 142.4 82% 82–74 ✗
Tennessee State @ Eastern Illinois -3.2 140.5 34% 70–74 ✗
South Carolina State @ Morgan State +3.3 139.8 70% 67–72 ✓
UIC @ Illinois State +13.5 137.7 87% 63–59 ✗
Washington State @ Saint Mary's +15.6 140.0 88% 82–88 ✓
Tulane @ UTSA -6.2 141.6 24% 85–52 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Coppin State -3.8 140.9 29% 88–77 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Bucknell +2.7 137.3 58% 67–70 ✓
Hampton @ Charleston +8.5 138.2 79% 70–74 ✓
UC Davis @ Cal Poly -1.2 158.7 48% 78–84 ✗
SE Louisiana @ McNeese +17.5 139.2 88% 61–73 ✓
Sacramento State @ Portland State +10.1 155.0 84% 69–96 ✓
Montana State @ Idaho +0.8 142.8 57% 89–92 ✓
Montana @ Eastern Washington -2.3 156.9 46% 65–66 ✗
Florida International @ Missouri State +1.2 148.5 61% 71–79 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Kennesaw State +3.3 143.4 60% 82–88 ✓
Alcorn State @ Alabama A&M +11.0 142.5 87% 64–62 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Texas Southern -1.6 156.2 48% 74–66 ✓
Grambling @ Bethune-Cookman -2.3 146.6 43% 65–74 ✗
Arkansas @ Auburn +1.2 165.6 45% 73–95 ✓
Wake Forest @ North Carolina +10.7 148.8 81% 84–87 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Bradley +1.2 132.8 45% 69–75 ✓
Belmont @ Drake -5.7 144.1 27% 78–76 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Prairie View A&M +15.5 151.9 89% 69–70 ✓
Clemson @ Notre Dame +0.9 131.4 50% 76–61 ✗
UNC Wilmington @ Stony Brook -5.3 130.2 23% 75–71 ✓
Houston Christian @ Stephen F. Austin +15.9 133.7 88% 67–85 ✓
Nicholls @ LSU New Orleans +0.5 150.1 56% 90–77 ✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ East Texas A&M -4.9 142.5 31% 69–77 ✗
Missouri @ Ole Miss +0.6 143.2 55% 69–76 ✓
Seton Hall @ Georgetown -3.3 137.3 38% 76–67 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.