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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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22–16 on winners spread MAE 10.8 38 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Belmont @ Southern Illinois -2.2 146.8 39% 73–68 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Santa Clara +2.0 148.8 64% 54–62 ✓
Wyoming @ Fresno State -2.7 140.7 42% 60–63 ✗
South Carolina Upstate @ High Point +16.2 155.2 88% 69–89 ✓
Robert Morris @ Northern Kentucky +6.0 150.2 77% 92–89 ✗
Long Island University @ Fairleigh Dickinson -7.2 139.2 25% 66–59 ✓
Campbell @ UNC Wilmington +8.3 144.2 81% 75–78 ✓
The Citadel @ VMI +4.8 140.4 76% 82–68 ✗
Bellarmine @ Eastern Kentucky +3.6 150.2 71% 69–89 ✓
Austin Peay @ Lipscomb +2.3 148.1 60% 78–82 ✓
BYU @ Texas Tech +0.8 154.7 52% 71–84 ✓
Louisville @ Pittsburgh -6.6 147.1 29% 100–59 ✓
New Mexico @ San Diego State +2.3 145.5 62% 79–83 ✓
Long Beach State @ Cal State Northridge +4.6 154.9 71% 87–80 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ UC Riverside -2.6 153.9 39% 72–81 ✗
St. John's @ Villanova +1.9 147.1 57% 86–79 ✗
Omaha @ Oral Roberts +1.5 145.1 59% 73–62 ✗
Ole Miss @ Mississippi State +1.4 148.2 59% 68–67 ✗
Abilene Christian @ Southern Utah -5.6 142.8 31% 52–74 ✗
Portland @ Loyola Marymount +6.1 145.2 76% 71–58 ✗
Hawai'i @ UC Santa Barbara -5.2 140.7 32% 62–77 ✗
Montana @ Montana State +5.5 146.1 74% 67–76 ✓
Idaho @ Weber State +4.1 153.5 73% 75–67 ✗
Tarleton State @ Utah Tech +0.1 149.1 51% 71–75 ✓
Gonzaga @ Seattle U -12.3 150.2 16% 71–50 ✓
Kansas State @ Oklahoma State +5.6 167.3 74% 83–84 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Sacramento State -4.5 159.1 46% 89–93 ✗
Florida Atlantic @ Temple -2.2 146.2 39% 79–73 ✓
Penn State @ Maryland -1.0 142.0 46% 73–96 ✗
American University @ Army -3.9 145.5 44% 78–67 ✓
Wichita State @ South Florida +7.0 153.7 77% 86–85 ✗
Charlotte @ East Carolina -4.4 142.8 32% 73–70 ✓
Oakland @ Green Bay -1.4 152.8 39% 88–63 ✓
Milwaukee @ Purdue Fort Wayne +2.0 145.4 64% 82–100 ✓
Tulsa @ UAB -1.2 157.8 46% 99–77 ✓
North Texas @ Tulane +1.7 131.9 53% 71–63 ✗
UTSA @ Memphis +20.2 139.7 91% 69–95 ✓
Arizona State @ Houston +14.8 140.1 88% 73–103 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.