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Baseline Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
75–47 on winners
spread MAE 9.1
122 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+7.0 | 154.5 | 81% | 62–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.7 | 139.4 | 90% | 51–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.7 | 139.5 | 70% | 75–80 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.6 | 143.1 | 33% | 71–76 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.4 | 138.6 | 71% | 73–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-12.0 | 145.1 | 16% | 64–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.8 | 136.7 | 89% | 67–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.5 | 152.4 | 56% | 72–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.0 | 147.4 | 75% | 80–78 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.8 | 139.2 | 74% | 77–66 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.0 | 141.7 | 73% | 76–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+18.9 | 153.2 | 90% | 78–74 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.6 | 132.5 | 47% | 78–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.4 | 148.0 | 79% | 89–85 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.6 | 145.2 | 51% | 74–63 | ✗ |
|
|
-6.6 | 170.6 | 27% | 83–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.0 | 144.2 | 73% | 74–86 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.9 | 135.6 | 44% | 55–74 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.0 | 147.7 | 37% | 57–74 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.1 | 138.8 | 79% | 79–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.0 | 156.9 | 87% | 102–105 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.3 | 132.1 | 51% | 74–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.2 | 146.4 | 67% | 90–82 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.3 | 136.1 | 66% | 75–73 | ✗ |
|
|
-8.0 | 139.0 | 23% | 70–79 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.9 | 160.4 | 68% | 98–94 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.9 | 145.0 | 72% | 62–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.6 | 135.8 | 84% | 76–95 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.5 | 152.0 | 26% | 79–82 | ✗ |
|
|
+13.5 | 149.6 | 86% | 87–96 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.8 | 140.9 | 60% | 74–57 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.1 | 148.5 | 37% | 69–67 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.7 | 137.1 | 22% | 92–55 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.8 | 131.2 | 84% | 58–69 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.4 | 134.9 | 35% | 73–81 | ✗ |
|
|
-4.1 | 137.1 | 34% | 82–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.0 | 136.5 | 37% | 80–86 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.6 | 149.0 | 64% | 65–68 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.0 | 158.2 | 54% | 80–96 | ✗ |
|
|
+14.6 | 164.1 | 85% | 68–102 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.0 | 150.4 | 33% | 78–80 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.3 | 160.5 | 53% | 80–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.6 | 158.5 | 89% | 89–104 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.9 | 135.8 | 82% | 67–82 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.7 | 140.5 | 28% | 74–59 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.4 | 133.8 | 72% | 80–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.2 | 126.3 | 73% | 62–57 | ✗ |
|
|
-8.9 | 140.6 | 21% | 98–90 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.9 | 140.3 | 40% | 72–57 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.2 | 144.1 | 27% | 76–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.5 | 155.0 | 78% | 72–90 | ✓ |
|
|
-8.6 | 154.8 | 23% | 87–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.4 | 156.6 | 85% | 69–98 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.8 | 158.0 | 47% | 76–63 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.4 | 134.0 | 25% | 97–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.5 | 141.6 | 71% | 59–69 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.1 | 141.9 | 31% | 74–84 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.5 | 141.4 | 40% | 74–78 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.8 | 154.3 | 63% | 83–85 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.0 | 129.7 | 37% | 44–54 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.8 | 139.7 | 65% | 67–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.6 | 135.2 | 41% | 71–83 | ✗ |
|
|
-6.5 | 149.1 | 30% | 68–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.9 | 153.0 | 60% | 84–74 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.5 | 155.7 | 66% | 79–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.4 | 132.8 | 53% | 90–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.7 | 160.8 | 76% | 81–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.9 | 135.7 | 85% | 69–80 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.7 | 152.9 | 37% | 77–57 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.4 | 149.6 | 71% | 70–78 | ✓ |
|
|
-8.1 | 158.8 | 23% | 84–77 | ✓ |
|
|
-17.8 | 153.2 | 13% | 81–71 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.2 | 144.1 | 28% | 77–58 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.4 | 144.0 | 45% | 78–84 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.0 | 174.4 | 64% | 76–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.8 | 160.1 | 87% | 81–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.8 | 148.8 | 50% | 72–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+15.5 | 156.6 | 86% | 63–88 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.5 | 156.2 | 38% | 78–82 | ✗ |
|
|
-14.8 | 133.1 | 13% | 81–66 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.2 | 135.0 | 41% | 106–112 | ✗ |
|
|
-8.6 | 155.5 | 22% | 102–92 | ✓ |
|
|
-9.7 | 144.8 | 20% | 83–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.9 | 136.2 | 62% | 90–80 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.1 | 131.6 | 81% | 59–56 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.1 | 149.7 | 78% | 72–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.3 | 141.0 | 49% | 76–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.0 | 133.6 | 78% | 79–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.3 | 135.1 | 72% | 74–86 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.5 | 135.9 | 35% | 83–69 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.4 | 135.2 | 20% | 89–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.3 | 130.0 | 56% | 80–79 | ✗ |
|
|
+12.7 | 134.3 | 88% | 67–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.0 | 130.8 | 72% | 56–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.0 | 134.4 | 56% | 70–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.6 | 159.6 | 69% | 74–99 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.7 | 143.2 | 43% | 67–74 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.2 | 149.2 | 82% | 67–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.9 | 140.2 | 70% | 55–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.0 | 139.9 | 66% | 68–55 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.6 | 149.3 | 45% | 76–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.7 | 152.1 | 63% | 71–53 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.7 | 145.7 | 77% | 74–70 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.1 | 145.7 | 48% | 72–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.5 | 136.6 | 77% | 74–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.4 | 143.2 | 86% | 52–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.1 | 128.1 | 57% | 60–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.8 | 147.8 | 85% | 62–90 | ✓ |
|
|
-9.3 | 140.6 | 19% | 76–79 | ✗ |
|
|
-6.6 | 153.1 | 26% | 69–64 | ✓ |
|
|
-9.5 | 143.3 | 23% | 80–50 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.5 | 138.3 | 36% | 80–63 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.1 | 139.0 | 40% | 81–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.6 | 142.8 | 67% | 61–72 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.1 | 158.2 | 43% | 69–68 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.3 | 141.7 | 22% | 84–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.1 | 151.7 | 83% | 84–66 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.5 | 167.4 | 70% | 74–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+12.7 | 153.1 | 82% | 67–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.0 | 136.9 | 83% | 87–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.2 | 151.4 | 70% | 71–67 | ✗ |
|
|
-12.1 | 142.5 | 14% | 79–63 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.