I'll write on your tombstone, "I thank you for dinner." "Bungle in the Jungle" - Jethro Tull
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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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35–18 on winners spread MAE 9.3 53 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Tulsa @ Wichita State +1.1 148.6 60% 77–81 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal Poly -3.9 155.3 38% 79–89 ✗
Georgetown @ UConn +17.8 143.7 89% 75–79 ✓
Virginia @ Ohio State -3.7 145.6 32% 70–66 ✓
Memphis @ Utah State +14.5 148.7 87% 75–99 ✓
St. Thomas @ Kansas City -13.6 147.4 14% 104–64 ✓
South Dakota State @ Oral Roberts -5.5 146.1 33% 87–69 ✓
Hawai'i @ Cal State Northridge -3.7 153.8 38% 60–84 ✗
Sacramento State @ Northern Arizona -0.2 152.1 47% 74–79 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ Western Kentucky +2.7 143.7 62% 80–82 ✓
Marshall @ Georgia Southern -3.9 156.4 36% 87–101 ✗
South Carolina @ Alabama +17.4 165.9 89% 75–89 ✓
Auburn @ Arkansas +6.0 164.0 71% 75–88 ✓
Troy @ Southern Miss -2.0 146.3 45% 65–69 ✗
Texas @ Missouri -0.6 152.8 48% 85–68 ✓
Minnesota @ Washington +5.8 134.0 76% 57–69 ✓
Montana State @ Montana +0.7 143.7 57% 82–71 ✗
California Baptist @ Utah Tech -0.2 143.0 49% 65–70 ✗
Nevada @ San Diego State +6.3 144.0 74% 57–71 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ UC Irvine +6.1 152.5 74% 65–86 ✓
UC Riverside @ UC San Diego +12.3 141.1 87% 66–72 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Pacific -5.3 135.1 30% 72–61 ✓
Gonzaga @ Santa Clara -2.7 153.1 39% 94–86 ✓
UTSA @ Charlotte +15.4 145.6 89% 88–79 ✗
Utah @ Cincinnati +10.7 139.1 83% 65–69 ✓
Maryland @ Rutgers +0.9 144.7 60% 57–68 ✓
Indiana @ Illinois +12.1 152.6 85% 51–71 ✓
Holy Cross @ Loyola Maryland +1.9 142.6 62% 73–83 ✓
Denver @ Omaha +0.8 158.1 58% 76–83 ✓
Youngstown State @ Detroit Mercy +0.4 148.1 59% 70–76 ✓
Manhattan @ Canisius -1.0 141.1 45% 69–65 ✓
Indiana State @ Valparaiso +5.4 142.7 73% 75–76 ✓
Bradley @ Southern Illinois +2.4 145.3 65% 70–60 ✗
North Texas @ Temple +1.7 138.8 60% 65–62 ✗
South Florida @ Florida Atlantic -2.5 162.4 36% 83–81 ✓
Tulane @ UAB +7.5 150.4 78% 55–54 ✗
Rider @ Sacred Heart +9.8 145.5 84% 75–86 ✓
Fairfield @ Saint Peter's +2.9 139.5 66% 74–83 ✓
Merrimack @ Quinnipiac +2.2 137.1 60% 56–49 ✗
Oakland @ Robert Morris +1.5 153.7 55% 69–93 ✓
Wright State @ Cleveland State -7.8 152.8 25% 102–90 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Purdue Fort Wayne +7.4 156.3 78% 78–83 ✓
Iona @ Niagara -5.6 131.1 32% 68–70 ✗
Siena @ Marist +3.5 132.7 63% 67–63 ✗
Drake @ Northern Iowa +10.1 135.6 81% 62–86 ✓
Illinois State @ UIC -1.4 138.0 47% 56–83 ✗
Green Bay @ Milwaukee +0.3 144.0 53% 72–75 ✓
Davidson @ Dayton +2.2 140.5 65% 59–70 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ North Alabama -2.9 146.5 41% 78–84 ✗
Charleston @ Campbell +0.5 153.4 50% 62–57 ✗
Belmont @ Murray State +0.9 163.9 48% 87–70 ✗
San Francisco @ San Diego -1.5 149.5 47% 92–79 ✓
Seton Hall @ Butler -0.6 143.5 47% 63–56 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.