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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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26–11 on winners spread MAE 8.7 37 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Duke @ Notre Dame -13.0 139.2 12% 100–56 ✓
Cincinnati @ Texas Tech +11.2 145.0 85% 68–80 ✓
NC State @ Virginia +6.5 150.9 75% 61–90 ✓
Saint Louis @ Dayton -5.6 152.0 32% 62–77 ✗
West Virginia @ Oklahoma State +0.3 139.5 53% 84–91 ✓
Northwestern @ Indiana +9.9 147.4 83% 72–68 ✗
Marquette @ Georgetown +5.2 148.5 70% 76–60 ✗
Western Michigan @ Bowling Green +10.6 146.8 86% 88–79 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Toledo +12.5 142.9 86% 69–79 ✓
Massachusetts @ Ball State -4.3 140.3 41% 73–74 ✗
Central Michigan @ Kent State +9.4 154.0 83% 81–83 ✓
Buffalo @ Akron +13.9 158.1 85% 85–99 ✓
Louisiana @ Troy +11.8 136.8 83% 59–78 ✓
Old Dominion @ Marshall +6.7 154.7 81% 88–97 ✓
Kentucky @ South Carolina -9.2 150.2 25% 72–63 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia State -0.4 139.9 49% 76–71 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Morehead State +7.8 144.4 78% 63–64 ✓
Bradley @ UIC +3.7 140.2 67% 86–93 ✓
Minnesota @ Michigan +22.7 142.3 91% 67–77 ✓
Southern Miss @ Arkansas State +8.5 153.5 79% 84–89 ✓
Arizona @ Baylor -11.0 157.0 16% 87–80 ✓
Iowa State @ Utah -13.5 143.5 14% 75–59 ✓
Fresno State @ Colorado State +7.1 142.2 75% 70–74 ✓
Arizona State @ TCU +5.8 149.1 75% 78–90 ✓
Wyoming @ Boise State +6.8 148.6 72% 62–72 ✓
Miami @ Florida State -2.4 150.3 43% 83–73 ✓
San José State @ Air Force -7.4 138.2 24% 86–80 ✓
Auburn @ Oklahoma -2.6 160.1 46% 79–91 ✗
Tennessee @ Missouri -4.9 143.1 28% 69–73 ✗
UCF @ BYU +11.9 160.6 82% 97–84 ✗
New Mexico @ Nevada -0.8 148.3 47% 60–67 ✗
USC @ UCLA +5.7 152.6 70% 62–81 ✓
Bucknell @ Army +2.7 139.9 67% 75–73 ✗
Wake Forest @ Boston College -4.6 145.0 33% 67–68 ✗
Morgan State @ South Carolina State -0.3 147.5 47% 90–83 ✓
The Citadel @ Furman +12.5 140.4 87% 51–72 ✓
Oakland @ IU Indianapolis -5.7 166.1 28% 86–74 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.