Then she opened up a book of poems and handed it to me, written by an Italian poet from the thirteenth century. "Tangled Up in Blue" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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38–14 on winners spread MAE 8.1 52 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Auburn @ LSU -10.4 146.1 17% 87–74 ✓
Houston @ West Virginia -6.6 123.9 21% 63–49 ✓
Wisconsin @ Maryland +5.4 151.4 73% 68–76 ✓
TCU @ Texas Tech +11.5 135.0 87% 57–71 ✓
Longwood @ Gardner-Webb -0.3 150.5 49% 87–92 ✗
UTSA @ Florida Atlantic +7.4 157.1 76% 74–94 ✓
Charlotte @ Temple +9.2 144.9 81% 89–90 ✓
Virginia @ Miami -2.1 138.7 26% 82–71 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Florida State +10.7 142.5 85% 76–66 ✗
Massachusetts @ Rhode Island +6.2 155.6 78% 82–88 ✓
Richmond @ George Washington +8.3 136.2 79% 66–75 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ George Mason +11.3 136.1 82% 53–58 ✓
Duquesne @ Saint Joseph's +8.3 140.6 78% 72–76 ✓
Fordham @ La Salle +4.9 147.1 71% 88–72 ✗
Northern Iowa @ Drake +6.3 126.8 77% 52–66 ✓
Missouri State @ Indiana State +2.5 151.4 58% 67–72 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Bucknell +4.1 141.2 67% 67–79 ✓
Navy @ Lehigh +2.0 137.4 57% 79–54 ✗
American University @ Lafayette -0.6 139.0 38% 75–68 ✓
Stetson @ North Florida +10.3 163.2 87% 100–101 ✓
North Alabama @ Queens University -2.3 149.3 43% 67–75 ✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ Jacksonville +3.2 136.3 58% 83–79 ✗
VMI @ Wofford +10.7 141.7 85% 74–67 ✗
Chattanooga @ Western Carolina -11.3 146.7 16% 84–60 ✓
East Tennessee State @ UNC Greensboro +3.7 133.3 66% 65–70 ✓
The Citadel @ Mercer +10.8 143.5 81% 46–80 ✓
North Texas @ Wichita State -5.1 134.9 25% 58–54 ✓
West Georgia @ Central Arkansas +1.5 143.2 58% 70–75 ✓
DePaul @ UConn +12.1 146.7 87% 61–72 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Kansas State +5.3 143.1 72% 57–85 ✓
UAB @ Tulsa -5.3 153.7 29% 78–68 ✓
UIC @ Bradley +10.2 150.3 82% 93–70 ✗
Murray State @ Evansville -3.7 135.5 36% 74–78 ✗
Xavier @ Creighton +5.4 140.5 76% 77–86 ✓
Arkansas State @ Southern Miss -8.7 147.4 21% 81–68 ✓
Oral Roberts @ St. Thomas +14.3 158.9 87% 71–86 ✓
Omaha @ South Dakota -0.5 167.0 58% 87–91 ✗
Alabama @ Mississippi State -0.9 172.6 42% 88–84 ✓
Texas @ Ole Miss +6.3 139.7 75% 69–72 ✓
California @ SMU +12.0 153.7 86% 65–76 ✓
Belmont @ Illinois State +2.1 154.1 63% 78–81 ✓
Rutgers @ Northwestern +6.1 146.6 74% 79–72 ✗
Saint Mary's @ Santa Clara +0.5 143.1 48% 67–54 ✗
Nevada @ Boise State +6.6 140.6 76% 56–66 ✓
UNLV @ Utah State +11.8 144.3 86% 71–76 ✓
Syracuse @ Stanford +10.8 149.3 85% 61–70 ✓
New Hampshire @ Maine +17.4 142.6 90% 46–71 ✓
Stony Brook @ Charleston +13.5 146.6 87% 74–81 ✓
Vermont @ Binghamton -0.1 132.1 44% 72–75 ✗
Ohio State @ Penn State +0.7 151.7 52% 83–64 ✗
Wright State @ Youngstown State +0.4 146.2 54% 86–88 ✓
Towson @ Delaware -0.1 144.8 40% 76–66 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.