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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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33–21 on winners spread MAE 10.1 54 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Wagner @ Stonehill +4.0 126.9 64% 61–73 ✓
Saint Francis @ Mercyhurst +0.4 138.4 48% 58–62 ✓
Le Moyne @ Fairleigh Dickinson +5.3 151.5 72% 74–78 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Long Island University -3.8 127.5 27% 63–50 ✓
UMass Lowell @ NJIT -7.0 140.8 23% 62–83 ✗
Bryant @ UMBC -1.9 164.7 37% 92–86 ✓
Georgia State @ Marshall +10.6 148.2 87% 85–81 ✗
Georgia Southern @ Troy +11.1 140.6 85% 74–81 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ James Madison +11.1 139.7 86% 64–73 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Robert Morris +8.3 149.2 78% 53–106 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Detroit Mercy -2.5 132.3 41% 57–68 ✗
Green Bay @ Oakland +11.8 137.7 86% 54–68 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ North Carolina A&T -9.0 151.5 16% 83–59 ✓
William & Mary @ Campbell +1.2 148.9 51% 55–96 ✓
Drexel @ Monmouth -2.1 134.2 45% 97–104 ✗
Hofstra @ Elon +3.9 131.4 62% 74–63 ✗
Northeastern @ Hampton -0.0 140.5 44% 78–69 ✓
Florida International @ Jacksonville State +9.3 137.5 82% 67–71 ✓
New Mexico State @ Middle Tennessee +5.8 138.3 75% 61–57 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ Morehead State +3.2 137.8 62% 72–64 ✗
UL Monroe @ South Alabama +13.5 131.6 84% 62–58 ✗
Louisiana @ Texas State +10.8 145.2 86% 70–61 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Lipscomb +13.5 146.2 88% 80–71 ✗
Bellarmine @ Austin Peay +9.9 144.8 85% 77–86 ✓
Southern Utah @ UT Arlington +5.0 143.2 73% 68–70 ✓
Utah Tech @ Tarleton State +1.0 132.3 60% 54–61 ✓
South Dakota State @ North Dakota State +4.2 154.7 67% 72–62 ✗
UTEP @ Western Kentucky +2.4 143.9 64% 74–78 ✓
Liberty @ Kennesaw State -3.3 142.2 39% 76–68 ✓
Tennessee State @ Little Rock +6.3 141.8 71% 72–70 ✗
Illinois @ Nebraska -5.7 153.8 37% 74–80 ✗
UT Martin @ Southeast Missouri State +4.2 141.9 69% 79–90 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Lindenwood -2.8 139.7 37% 63–65 ✗
Eastern Illinois @ Western Illinois +0.6 129.4 41% 71–59 ✗
Memphis @ Tulane -6.1 148.6 26% 68–56 ✓
Sacramento State @ Montana State +9.8 133.0 84% 58–70 ✓
Idaho @ Weber State +1.0 144.9 54% 82–74 ✗
Portland State @ Montana +0.7 141.8 54% 78–92 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Idaho State +4.5 139.2 71% 70–78 ✓
Cleveland State @ Purdue Fort Wayne +4.6 148.3 58% 68–58 ✗
Kansas City @ Denver -4.3 133.3 31% 68–69 ✗
Cal Poly @ Cal State Bakersfield +3.0 158.6 69% 90–81 ✗
UC Davis @ UC Riverside +5.2 138.7 73% 58–60 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ UC Santa Barbara +0.4 144.9 50% 78–71 ✗
UC Irvine @ Long Beach State -13.3 138.1 13% 80–75 ✓
Pepperdine @ San Diego -3.3 142.3 34% 98–90 ✓
Portland @ Loyola Marymount +11.5 145.4 86% 63–88 ✓
Washington State @ Pacific -11.7 150.0 23% 68–70 ✗
Abilene Christian @ California Baptist +6.5 134.4 74% 60–83 ✓
Oregon @ UCLA +3.7 143.3 72% 52–78 ✓
Seattle U @ Grand Canyon +9.0 141.7 82% 74–83 ✓
UC San Diego @ Hawai'i -7.6 139.4 23% 74–63 ✓
Yale @ Princeton -4.0 148.2 37% 77–70 ✓
Butler @ Georgetown +2.8 136.4 62% 70–73 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.