Sometimes we're not prepared for adversity. "Mercy, Mercy, Mercy" - The Cannonball Adderley Quartet
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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31–12 on winners spread MAE 7.6 43 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Memphis @ UTSA -9.7 157.3 17% 75–70 ✓
Rutgers @ Purdue +11.4 153.9 88% 71–100 ✓
LSU @ Kentucky +12.1 159.2 87% 64–95 ✓
Lehigh @ Loyola Maryland +0.6 139.9 54% 73–77 ✓
Holy Cross @ Lafayette +4.4 142.1 68% 68–69 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Northern Kentucky +10.1 142.3 83% 75–99 ✓
Green Bay @ Oakland +10.1 150.5 86% 72–96 ✓
Miami @ Georgia Tech +10.8 152.4 87% 74–89 ✓
North Carolina @ Virginia Tech -7.1 150.7 22% 91–59 ✓
Saint Louis @ Dayton +6.4 147.1 76% 67–75 ✓
VCU @ Duquesne -7.4 134.4 16% 71–62 ✓
NJIT @ Binghamton +7.3 139.5 76% 75–72 ✗
UAlbany @ Vermont +5.3 135.4 72% 71–79 ✓
Creighton @ Seton Hall -10.6 133.6 17% 79–61 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Buffalo -8.6 150.7 20% 84–69 ✓
Kent State @ Western Michigan -6.8 146.7 26% 77–76 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Ohio +9.2 153.5 80% 83–79 ✗
Central Michigan @ Ball State -0.2 146.5 50% 69–67 ✓
Bowling Green @ Northern Illinois -3.4 142.9 25% 71–58 ✓
Akron @ Toledo -4.5 160.0 33% 96–87 ✓
Texas @ Mississippi State +6.8 155.7 74% 87–82 ✗
IU Indianapolis @ Wright State +7.1 155.3 81% 85–98 ✓
Baylor @ TCU -1.9 140.0 41% 61–58 ✓
Temple @ Tulsa -2.0 149.3 41% 81–77 ✓
Villanova @ Georgetown -0.8 140.1 49% 73–75 ✗
UL Monroe @ Louisiana +4.1 138.8 68% 69–73 ✓
Auburn @ Texas A&M -5.7 149.3 31% 72–83 ✗
BYU @ Iowa State +6.4 152.9 78% 88–85 ✗
West Virginia @ Utah +1.2 137.2 56% 71–69 ✗
Florida State @ Virginia +2.2 137.7 66% 57–60 ✓
Syracuse @ SMU +12.4 157.8 87% 75–77 ✓
San José State @ Colorado State +14.6 145.2 89% 56–83 ✓
New Mexico @ Nevada -0.6 148.1 44% 71–67 ✓
Boise State @ Air Force -14.9 135.0 12% 80–57 ✓
Indiana @ Oregon +6.1 148.0 77% 64–73 ✓
Nebraska @ Ohio State +6.4 144.5 75% 114–116 ✓
Wyoming @ Fresno State -1.2 141.8 49% 58–62 ✗
Arkansas @ Vanderbilt +4.2 152.0 61% 90–77 ✗
Arizona State @ Arizona +12.1 154.1 88% 100–113 ✓
San Diego State @ UNLV -0.9 129.3 50% 67–74 ✗
Southern Miss @ Georgia Southern +2.5 142.7 61% 64–78 ✓
Maryland @ Michigan +2.0 150.4 57% 71–65 ✗
DePaul @ Providence +6.5 145.9 77% 80–77 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.