Sometimes we're not prepared for adversity. "Mercy, Mercy, Mercy" - The Cannonball Adderley Quartet
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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20–8 on winners spread MAE 7.7 28 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Western Carolina @ Georgia +32.2 161.5 91% 82–112 ✓
Bradley @ Indiana State -0.4 141.2 49% 108–99 ✓
Temple @ Davidson +9.4 147.4 80% 68–63 ✗
Radford @ William & Mary +18.0 157.0 86% 83–96 ✓
Furman @ Manhattan -4.5 150.5 27% 75–68 ✓
Southern Utah @ Northern Arizona +10.8 140.4 84% 57–65 ✓
American University @ VCU +19.0 146.2 89% 83–105 ✓
Delaware State @ Saint Joseph's +12.1 135.4 89% 51–67 ✓
Lafayette @ Charlotte +12.1 134.0 82% 67–81 ✓
Fairfield @ Central Connecticut +8.0 143.5 77% 84–70 ✗
Norfolk State @ Grambling +0.0 129.7 42% 68–80 ✓
Drake @ Murray State +8.2 158.0 80% 72–81 ✓
Winthrop @ North Dakota -9.9 151.0 17% 88–90 ✗
Kansas City @ Oklahoma State +24.6 151.1 91% 79–91 ✓
Oral Roberts @ TCU +19.4 144.4 89% 53–72 ✓
Georgia State @ Georgia Southern +9.5 149.6 85% 67–90 ✓
Louisiana @ Southern Miss +14.3 132.0 88% 54–62 ✓
UT Martin @ Tennessee State +1.7 133.5 57% 71–78 ✓
Little Rock @ Southern Indiana +3.7 140.7 75% 77–62 ✗
Western Illinois @ Lindenwood +13.0 143.6 88% 76–92 ✓
Illinois State @ Southern Illinois +0.1 149.2 50% 75–68 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Tennessee Tech +3.2 151.7 66% 74–85 ✓
Pepperdine @ Long Beach State +3.2 136.8 65% 78–81 ✓
Dartmouth @ Sacred Heart -0.0 148.6 54% 63–85 ✗
Grambling @ Hampton +0.6 133.8 57% 81–72 ✗
South Dakota State @ Milwaukee +0.4 146.6 55% 87–88 ✓
Coppin State @ Navy +22.0 142.1 91% 55–88 ✓
Seton Hall @ Providence +0.6 151.0 46% 72–67 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.