What's the point of robbery when nothing is worth taking? "Stand and Deliver" - Adam and the Ants
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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83–52 on winners spread MAE 9.6 135 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Rider @ Fairfield +11.0 138.2 87% 62–68 ✓
Cleveland State @ Oakland +15.3 163.2 89% 74–97 ✓
Wright State @ Detroit Mercy -4.8 144.8 33% 84–82 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Green Bay +10.4 158.5 85% 59–75 ✓
Merrimack @ Siena +5.0 132.3 64% 63–59 ✗
Saint Peter's @ Mount St. Mary's -1.4 136.6 35% 65–70 ✗
Niagara @ Iona +12.0 139.8 88% 53–71 ✓
Marist @ Sacred Heart -7.3 133.1 20% 76–72 ✓
Canisius @ Manhattan +3.8 142.1 61% 70–64 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ Milwaukee +0.8 147.3 56% 85–67 ✗
Akron @ Bowling Green +0.2 162.9 54% 77–67 ✗
USC @ Minnesota +2.2 142.8 59% 70–69 ✗
UNLV @ Colorado State +9.5 145.2 79% 62–70 ✓
Nebraska @ Indiana +3.2 139.5 74% 83–77 ✗
Boston College @ Louisville +19.7 142.9 90% 62–75 ✓
Tennessee @ Florida +4.5 146.5 65% 67–91 ✓
Kansas @ West Virginia -3.1 139.6 40% 75–86 ✗
VCU @ George Mason +1.7 144.7 57% 80–86 ✓
Fordham @ St. Bonaventure +6.9 134.1 76% 81–77 ✗
Georgia Tech @ Miami +14.9 150.7 88% 81–91 ✓
NC State @ Florida State -4.3 155.2 35% 113–69 ✓
DePaul @ UConn +17.2 136.0 89% 60–72 ✓
Wisconsin @ Michigan +22.2 156.2 90% 91–88 ✗
Houston @ Baylor +1.0 144.1 49% 77–55 ✗
LSU @ Vanderbilt +12.8 159.9 86% 73–84 ✓
Evansville @ Indiana State +4.7 137.7 68% 72–69 ✗
Army @ Boston University +5.8 146.1 76% 91–100 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Western Michigan -2.0 142.0 43% 62–79 ✗
Mercyhurst @ Wagner +0.4 133.5 51% 70–69 ✗
Central Connecticut @ Le Moyne +1.1 144.9 59% 69–59 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ New Haven +4.2 129.1 62% 55–65 ✓
New Hampshire @ UMBC +6.2 137.7 72% 74–75 ✓
Western Carolina @ The Citadel -5.7 147.4 28% 77–79 ✗
Troy @ Louisiana -8.3 138.9 18% 90–70 ✓
App State @ Coastal Carolina -0.0 133.3 43% 62–67 ✗
Penn State @ Purdue +18.9 148.0 90% 85–93 ✓
SMU @ Duke +11.4 157.5 82% 75–82 ✓
Georgia @ South Carolina -4.1 161.4 36% 75–70 ✓
Dartmouth @ Cornell +3.8 161.9 74% 102–91 ✗
Lehigh @ Colgate +9.5 143.2 82% 78–77 ✗
Rhode Island @ Davidson +3.5 133.4 66% 70–45 ✗
Winthrop @ South Carolina Upstate -1.5 151.4 47% 71–50 ✓
High Point @ Charleston Southern -9.0 158.7 25% 84–82 ✓
St. John's @ Creighton +1.4 146.4 60% 90–73 ✗
Syracuse @ Pittsburgh +0.8 137.9 51% 83–72 ✗
Lafayette @ Navy +11.8 141.6 84% 50–76 ✓
Denver @ South Dakota -0.4 166.1 57% 72–82 ✗
North Dakota State @ Omaha -6.3 147.6 28% 78–76 ✓
Yale @ Princeton -10.7 140.1 18% 60–76 ✗
Buffalo @ Ohio +0.6 150.7 53% 80–91 ✓
Harvard @ Columbia +9.4 142.9 80% 79–54 ✗
Brown @ Pennsylvania +5.0 138.2 67% 73–81 ✓
Chicago State @ Stonehill +2.1 129.9 56% 82–85 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Binghamton -4.7 146.3 29% 73–68 ✓
Maine @ NJIT +1.0 129.0 40% 74–70 ✗
Bryant @ UAlbany +1.6 135.3 60% 46–71 ✓
William & Mary @ Drexel -5.6 140.6 24% 58–64 ✗
Towson @ Northeastern +0.6 135.0 48% 87–78 ✗
Monmouth @ Hofstra +10.5 139.4 85% 64–67 ✓
Wofford @ Mercer +6.2 152.2 75% 97–109 ✓
VMI @ Furman +13.0 145.2 87% 48–69 ✓
Georgia Southern @ South Alabama +2.4 145.0 61% 71–87 ✓
Queens University @ North Florida -7.9 163.2 30% 89–82 ✓
North Alabama @ Bellarmine +4.4 144.4 71% 82–73 ✗
Austin Peay @ Stetson -10.0 142.5 16% 81–69 ✓
Stanford @ Virginia +10.4 145.2 83% 55–70 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Radford +2.4 147.8 68% 91–72 ✗
Villanova @ Marquette -8.2 138.0 19% 76–73 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ George Washington +17.9 151.0 90% 66–101 ✓
South Florida @ Tulsa +6.2 163.7 76% 93–78 ✗
Kansas State @ Arizona State +1.1 159.5 62% 84–87 ✓
Presbyterian @ Longwood +2.0 136.7 58% 70–77 ✓
New Mexico @ Air Force -18.8 131.1 12% 91–49 ✓
Kent State @ Central Michigan -8.7 153.3 21% 85–87 ✗
UL Monroe @ Southern Miss +13.8 153.5 86% 60–70 ✓
Texas State @ Arkansas State +11.6 151.2 85% 82–83 ✓
West Georgia @ Jacksonville -1.3 139.9 42% 43–75 ✗
Abilene Christian @ UT Arlington +4.7 130.2 68% 72–82 ✓
Delaware @ Louisiana Tech +1.8 122.8 62% 68–70 ✓
Ball State @ Massachusetts +10.7 142.5 83% 71–79 ✓
Oklahoma @ Texas A&M +6.1 159.8 75% 76–83 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Morehead State -2.3 145.0 41% 69–71 ✗
Liberty @ Sam Houston +2.3 150.0 59% 82–74 ✗
Arizona @ TCU -5.8 148.3 19% 86–73 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Iowa State +16.3 157.3 87% 71–83 ✓
Valparaiso @ Murray State +11.8 147.7 84% 79–92 ✓
Saint Louis @ La Salle -17.5 150.4 13% 84–72 ✓
Jackson State @ Alabama State +11.3 151.0 86% 75–64 ✗
Holy Cross @ American University +7.1 135.2 71% 84–73 ✗
Providence @ Xavier -0.7 161.4 49% 84–97 ✗
California @ Virginia Tech +5.2 147.6 75% 75–78 ✓
Saint Francis @ Long Island University +16.2 147.8 90% 63–67 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ East Tennessee State +12.6 147.2 86% 60–86 ✓
Old Dominion @ James Madison +4.7 146.2 65% 69–70 ✓
Marshall @ Georgia State -6.0 143.7 29% 73–81 ✗
Lipscomb @ Florida Gulf Coast +0.7 152.5 53% 84–77 ✗
Central Arkansas @ Eastern Kentucky +0.7 150.0 54% 75–79 ✓
Utah Tech @ Utah Valley +12.2 146.3 86% 76–92 ✓
Western Kentucky @ UTEP -2.3 143.5 42% 68–56 ✓
Norfolk State @ Delaware State -4.1 127.7 32% 66–64 ✓
Howard @ Maryland Eastern Shore -1.6 128.2 35% 57–69 ✗
Samford @ Chattanooga +0.0 142.7 53% 79–88 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Northwestern State -4.6 133.5 33% 78–79 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ Western Illinois -2.7 140.1 34% 59–54 ✓
Little Rock @ Lindenwood +9.0 143.0 80% 82–74 ✗
Tennessee State @ Eastern Illinois -2.4 139.6 36% 70–74 ✗
South Carolina State @ Morgan State +1.8 142.2 69% 67–72 ✓
UIC @ Illinois State +12.8 136.5 87% 63–59 ✗
Washington State @ Saint Mary's +15.0 141.2 87% 82–88 ✓
Tulane @ UTSA -5.8 139.2 23% 85–52 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Coppin State -5.4 139.1 28% 88–77 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Bucknell +4.0 137.8 55% 67–70 ✓
Hampton @ Charleston +7.9 139.1 78% 70–74 ✓
UC Davis @ Cal Poly -0.2 156.4 50% 78–84 ✗
SE Louisiana @ McNeese +17.1 139.6 88% 61–73 ✓
Sacramento State @ Portland State +9.9 149.6 85% 69–96 ✓
Montana State @ Idaho +0.6 140.6 52% 89–92 ✓
Montana @ Eastern Washington -1.9 154.9 42% 65–66 ✗
Florida International @ Missouri State +1.4 148.2 59% 71–79 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Kennesaw State +3.6 143.8 58% 82–88 ✓
Alcorn State @ Alabama A&M +10.4 143.8 87% 64–62 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Texas Southern -3.4 157.6 47% 74–66 ✓
Grambling @ Bethune-Cookman -2.8 147.0 31% 65–74 ✗
Arkansas @ Auburn +0.7 167.8 53% 73–95 ✓
Wake Forest @ North Carolina +9.7 146.6 83% 84–87 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Bradley +0.5 131.2 44% 69–75 ✓
Belmont @ Drake -6.3 146.1 28% 78–76 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Prairie View A&M +15.7 150.0 88% 69–70 ✓
Clemson @ Notre Dame +0.7 132.2 54% 76–61 ✗
UNC Wilmington @ Stony Brook -6.3 128.9 25% 75–71 ✓
Houston Christian @ Stephen F. Austin +15.9 133.6 88% 67–85 ✓
Nicholls @ LSU New Orleans +0.8 149.6 54% 90–77 ✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ East Texas A&M -5.0 142.6 25% 69–77 ✗
Missouri @ Ole Miss +0.1 143.9 51% 69–76 ✓
Seton Hall @ Georgetown -3.9 134.5 33% 76–67 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.