Just tell me where it hurts and I'll tell you who to call. "Quinn the Eskimo" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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33–20 on winners spread MAE 9.6 53 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Colorado @ Iowa State +16.2 154.0 89% 67–97 ✓
Radford @ Charleston Southern +4.4 157.6 74% 84–75 ✗
Longwood @ South Carolina Upstate +0.9 144.8 54% 60–65 ✓
New Haven @ Mercyhurst +3.9 123.2 65% 51–70 ✓
Le Moyne @ Long Island University +4.5 141.9 70% 61–83 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Stonehill +1.6 130.5 56% 57–58 ✓
UMBC @ Vermont +4.6 140.4 66% 55–64 ✓
Stony Brook @ Campbell +2.3 149.3 64% 81–69 ✗
William & Mary @ Elon -0.3 158.1 50% 76–79 ✗
Hampton @ Drexel +4.5 129.7 65% 51–58 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Monmouth +5.8 142.8 76% 81–83 ✓
Charleston @ Hofstra +4.9 148.8 72% 66–64 ✗
VMI @ The Citadel +3.4 142.2 72% 56–80 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Mercer +13.6 156.6 88% 77–95 ✓
Western Carolina @ East Tennessee State +11.9 146.0 86% 90–88 ✗
James Madison @ Troy +10.3 154.0 84% 73–64 ✗
Stetson @ North Florida +0.8 159.5 60% 84–77 ✗
North Alabama @ Florida Gulf Coast +9.6 150.0 84% 64–72 ✓
Lipscomb @ Jacksonville -3.7 142.5 31% 65–70 ✗
Liberty @ Middle Tennessee +0.2 139.5 46% 81–65 ✗
Central Connecticut @ Wagner -0.7 141.6 48% 62–55 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Morehead State -0.1 133.0 47% 65–67 ✗
Florida Atlantic @ Memphis +0.5 147.4 51% 65–92 ✓
Penn State @ Northwestern +8.9 145.7 79% 73–94 ✓
Oral Roberts @ South Dakota +5.7 152.8 73% 69–77 ✓
North Dakota @ St. Thomas +11.7 151.0 87% 81–80 ✗
Georgia State @ Louisiana -1.9 126.9 37% 72–82 ✗
Coastal Carolina @ South Alabama +3.1 141.0 60% 48–53 ✓
App State @ Southern Miss -0.0 133.4 47% 70–63 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Northern Arizona -1.7 145.5 40% 86–92 ✗
Southern Utah @ UT Arlington +11.0 140.5 85% 61–80 ✓
Utah Valley @ Tarleton State -2.5 154.1 42% 83–55 ✓
Utah Tech @ Abilene Christian +0.1 141.4 46% 76–70 ✗
Lindenwood @ Southern Indiana -3.2 141.6 37% 73–60 ✓
UT Martin @ Eastern Illinois -4.1 124.0 31% 76–68 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Western Illinois -7.5 134.8 22% 78–74 ✓
Little Rock @ Tennessee State +6.5 147.8 73% 63–70 ✓
Washington @ Illinois +13.4 149.2 87% 66–75 ✓
Presbyterian @ High Point +15.7 149.5 88% 81–84 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Towson +0.0 129.9 42% 82–73 ✗
Idaho @ Northern Colorado +1.6 148.9 58% 83–91 ✓
Cal Poly @ Cal State Bakersfield +0.7 156.1 53% 104–79 ✗
Long Beach State @ UC Riverside +0.5 144.0 49% 61–71 ✓
UC Davis @ Cal State Northridge +0.2 153.9 44% 78–94 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ UC San Diego +5.9 147.2 69% 62–48 ✗
Montana State @ Sacramento State -6.0 148.8 28% 80–83 ✗
Montana @ Portland State +3.6 141.4 64% 64–60 ✗
Hawai'i @ UC Irvine -0.8 134.8 41% 76–87 ✗
Georgia Southern @ UL Monroe -10.5 154.4 17% 79–76 ✓
Princeton @ Cornell +4.4 156.0 69% 64–87 ✓
Kent State @ Akron +11.8 165.4 85% 52–69 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Youngstown State +8.8 158.2 82% 76–85 ✓
Siena @ Niagara -8.7 127.6 17% 82–79 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.