Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | MEM -175 FAU +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +27 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -0.7 (+26.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -0.4 (+26.6) | 147.4 (+9.6) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -2.5 (+24.5) | 147.3 (+9.7) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -0.9 (+26.1) | 145.2 (+11.8) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -0.5 (+26.5) | 147.4 (+9.6) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2026 | FAU 89 – 78 MEM |
| Feb 23, 2025 | MEM 84 – 65 FAU |
| Jan 3, 2025 | MEM 90 – 62 FAU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | FAU 92 – 84 MEM |
| Feb 25, 2024 | MEM 78 – 74 FAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-6 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-10 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.7 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#110) | 6.7 (#90) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#125) | 1.13 (#82) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.63 (#122) | 1.45 (#83) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#149) | 0.583 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 64.4% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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