What's the point of robbery when nothing is worth taking? "Stand and Deliver" - Adam and the Ants
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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35–13 on winners spread MAE 8.2 48 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Memphis @ South Florida +7.7 154.8 79% 66–87 ✓
UNC Asheville @ High Point +12.2 147.6 87% 48–74 ✓
Longwood @ Presbyterian +1.9 140.8 54% 65–72 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Radford +15.4 155.8 88% 70–82 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Wright State +11.6 159.4 86% 73–85 ✓
Wagner @ Mercyhurst +5.3 136.3 69% 83–80 ✗
Stonehill @ New Haven +3.1 123.3 59% 51–64 ✓
Long Island University @ Saint Francis -10.8 144.5 16% 91–89 ✓
Le Moyne @ Central Connecticut +2.7 142.0 63% 77–78 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Chicago State -0.4 133.7 43% 60–59 ✓
UAlbany @ NJIT +4.6 139.1 66% 81–63 ✗
Monmouth @ UNC Wilmington +8.2 141.3 80% 69–79 ✓
Drexel @ Northeastern -0.1 142.9 44% 70–61 ✓
William & Mary @ Campbell -1.5 158.6 48% 83–84 ✗
Charleston @ North Carolina A&T -3.3 142.8 35% 74–61 ✓
Samford @ The Citadel -7.7 142.8 24% 78–75 ✓
Chattanooga @ Mercer +10.2 145.9 86% 94–90 ✗
Austin Peay @ North Florida -11.1 157.9 14% 77–76 ✓
Alabama State @ Bethune-Cookman +4.9 143.1 62% 71–82 ✓
Kansas City @ North Dakota +10.0 147.1 84% 70–85 ✓
Hampton @ Hofstra +12.0 133.5 87% 43–79 ✓
Texas State @ South Alabama +4.9 142.7 68% 90–82 ✗
Arkansas State @ Louisiana -7.5 144.2 24% 79–62 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Georgia State +0.3 148.5 51% 64–66 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Stetson -7.7 147.4 20% 88–76 ✓
California Baptist @ Utah Valley +6.1 140.1 75% 46–65 ✓
Utah Tech @ UT Arlington +1.7 138.8 53% 50–63 ✓
Southern Utah @ Tarleton State +6.6 144.2 75% 74–78 ✓
UT Martin @ Little Rock -4.9 131.2 31% 65–67 ✗
Southern Indiana @ Western Illinois -2.2 133.1 36% 77–70 ✓
Lindenwood @ Tennessee State +3.0 155.0 64% 80–89 ✓
Morehead State @ Eastern Illinois -0.2 136.0 43% 73–70 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Mississippi Valley State -11.3 148.0 14% 72–62 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Tennessee Tech -2.2 135.1 37% 52–62 ✗
Texas Southern @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff +2.2 151.5 57% 83–64 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ UC Santa Barbara +4.0 157.1 63% 85–83 ✗
South Dakota @ Denver +4.7 160.2 68% 70–90 ✓
Montana State @ Weber State -0.4 147.8 47% 79–82 ✗
Montana @ Idaho State -0.7 146.5 41% 69–73 ✗
Idaho @ Portland State +5.2 142.9 73% 67–77 ✓
Tulane @ North Texas +5.1 135.1 67% 77–71 ✗
Alabama A&M @ Florida A&M -0.4 136.6 44% 63–61 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Riverside +4.9 147.0 74% 65–93 ✓
UC Davis @ Cal State Fullerton +0.1 151.5 49% 92–93 ✓
UC Irvine @ Long Beach State -5.3 141.9 33% 69–58 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Sacramento State -0.3 159.8 54% 102–94 ✓
Cal Poly @ Hawai'i +11.8 155.6 85% 86–75 ✗
Akron @ Ball State -14.4 142.1 15% 78–65 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.