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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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21–16 on winners spread MAE 10.7 37 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Texas @ Arkansas +7.1 165.5 81% 85–105 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ George Washington +10.5 155.9 84% 82–91 ✓
Duquesne @ Rhode Island +2.0 139.9 61% 52–64 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Davidson +4.5 131.5 64% 70–67 ✗
UAB @ Charlotte -0.2 144.3 49% 80–74 ✓
Marquette @ Providence +6.6 161.0 73% 78–56 ✗
Miami @ SMU +2.7 158.6 61% 77–69 ✗
California @ Georgia Tech -5.4 150.1 29% 76–65 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ SIU Edwardsville +5.3 125.9 70% 77–71 ✗
Stonehill @ Le Moyne +5.6 136.2 75% 81–71 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Mercyhurst +6.0 135.1 74% 61–70 ✓
Wagner @ Central Connecticut +3.5 138.4 62% 70–60 ✗
Chicago State @ Long Island University +11.5 140.3 88% 75–79 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Oakland +3.0 159.7 65% 85–84 ✗
Milwaukee @ Detroit Mercy +2.7 153.4 70% 63–84 ✓
Youngstown State @ Robert Morris +6.3 144.1 80% 53–68 ✓
Cleveland State @ Wright State +12.6 159.9 89% 61–90 ✓
Ohio State @ Penn State -6.5 147.7 28% 94–62 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ South Carolina Upstate +10.0 140.7 85% 65–64 ✗
North Florida @ West Georgia +3.7 152.6 65% 85–93 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Saint Louis +25.3 150.7 91% 65–79 ✓
Maryland @ Wisconsin +13.5 150.3 87% 45–78 ✓
Rice @ North Texas +7.7 135.0 78% 58–62 ✓
Villanova @ DePaul -2.5 132.4 43% 76–57 ✓
Kansas City @ Oral Roberts +7.9 142.7 82% 62–84 ✓
Purdue @ Northwestern -7.5 144.6 23% 70–66 ✓
Old Dominion @ Georgia Southern -0.8 156.0 42% 84–88 ✗
Baylor @ Houston +12.9 145.8 88% 64–77 ✓
Florida State @ Pittsburgh +0.4 144.2 46% 75–74 ✗
Stanford @ Notre Dame +0.5 147.2 48% 86–78 ✗
Little Rock @ Lindenwood +2.1 142.5 61% 62–72 ✓
Colorado State @ New Mexico +8.4 147.1 78% 82–74 ✗
USC @ Washington +4.7 146.9 71% 72–91 ✓
Drake @ Southern Illinois +5.3 136.2 73% 67–63 ✗
South Carolina State @ North Carolina Central +5.9 145.1 79% 80–64 ✗
Sacred Heart @ Iona +2.7 144.8 64% 91–80 ✗
James Madison @ Southern Miss -1.6 141.8 42% 80–86 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.