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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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40–12 on winners spread MAE 9.4 52 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
TCU @ Texas Tech +11.2 149.9 86% 73–65 ✗
Wake Forest @ Virginia +11.8 152.1 88% 70–75 ✓
Clemson @ North Carolina +6.2 141.9 73% 63–67 ✓
Georgetown @ St. John's +14.6 146.1 88% 69–72 ✓
Toledo @ Miami (OH) +10.9 159.5 83% 72–74 ✓
George Mason @ VCU +10.3 143.3 85% 65–70 ✓
Dayton @ Richmond -2.3 143.3 34% 65–60 ✓
Oklahoma State @ UCF +6.6 162.3 78% 111–104 ✗
Seton Hall @ Xavier -0.8 138.1 38% 77–68 ✓
Ohio @ Massachusetts +4.3 155.1 72% 82–94 ✓
Ball State @ Western Michigan +4.3 135.2 65% 74–71 ✗
Akron @ Central Michigan -10.2 156.7 15% 77–64 ✓
UAlbany @ Vermont +8.2 138.8 80% 56–69 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Elon -4.0 146.8 33% 76–57 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Campbell +5.3 150.2 75% 72–90 ✓
Hampton @ William & Mary +11.3 150.0 87% 85–94 ✓
Drexel @ Hofstra +11.7 132.7 86% 51–62 ✓
Monmouth @ Northeastern -3.1 147.9 40% 89–83 ✓
Missouri @ Oklahoma +3.1 155.0 66% 64–80 ✓
Kentucky @ Texas A&M +1.5 158.4 55% 85–96 ✓
Holy Cross @ Lafayette +2.7 140.7 61% 82–77 ✗
Army @ Bucknell +2.4 145.3 59% 55–65 ✓
Mississippi State @ Florida +19.9 157.6 91% 74–108 ✓
West Virginia @ Kansas State +0.1 140.1 44% 63–65 ✓
Kent State @ Northern Illinois -8.8 148.1 22% 102–76 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Green Bay +5.0 146.1 73% 56–64 ✓
UL Monroe @ Old Dominion +9.9 153.2 85% 80–87 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Jackson State +0.3 151.6 48% 78–81 ✓
BYU @ Cincinnati +0.6 149.7 56% 68–90 ✓
Southern @ Alabama State +0.8 151.4 52% 71–64 ✗
Kansas @ Arizona State -4.7 143.2 31% 60–70 ✗
Oregon @ Illinois +17.8 147.1 89% 54–80 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Ole Miss -7.4 152.0 22% 89–86 ✓
Syracuse @ Louisville +13.5 157.9 88% 62–77 ✓
San José State @ Fresno State +8.2 146.5 81% 68–82 ✓
Colorado @ Utah +0.6 146.9 56% 92–78 ✗
San Diego State @ Boise State +2.0 146.1 58% 77–86 ✓
Boston College @ Virginia Tech +12.8 143.2 88% 63–72 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Air Force -17.2 137.4 12% 86–60 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Alcorn State +9.4 142.2 88% 64–67 ✓
Grambling @ Alabama A&M +0.7 137.5 50% 63–77 ✓
Nevada @ Wyoming +1.1 144.3 54% 73–83 ✓
LSU @ Auburn +6.3 157.8 75% 74–88 ✓
Nebraska @ UCLA -1.8 140.3 38% 52–72 ✗
Utah State @ UNLV -8.2 158.5 23% 65–92 ✗
Jacksonville @ Bellarmine +0.4 145.1 55% 79–82 ✓
North Alabama @ Florida Gulf Coast +6.0 142.1 75% 58–69 ✓
Stetson @ Eastern Kentucky +1.8 149.2 64% 92–76 ✗
Creighton @ Butler +3.8 151.3 69% 76–59 ✗
Louisiana @ James Madison +6.1 131.5 76% 72–87 ✓
Fordham @ La Salle -0.1 128.7 40% 84–87 ✗
Minnesota @ Indiana +6.6 138.5 76% 47–77 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.