Betting Lines
| Spread | LEM -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | LEM -225 STO +185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STO +10 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | LEM -7.2 (-17.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.0 (+14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LEM -5.3 (-15.3) | 135.2 (+16.8) | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LEM -4.4 (-14.4) | 138.3 (+13.7) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LEM -5.6 (-15.6) | 135.2 (+16.8) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LEM -5.6 (-15.6) | 136.2 (+15.8) | 75% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | STO 77 – 68 LEM |
| Jan 31, 2026 | STO 65 – 54 LEM |
| Mar 1, 2025 | STO 85 – 79 LEM |
| Jan 21, 2025 | LEM 73 – 72 STO |
| Feb 17, 2024 | LEM 75 – 67 STO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LEM | STO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 9-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 5-12 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -7.7 (#287) | -11.9 (#329) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.49 (#304) | -2.38 (#347) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.01 (#314) | -3.05 (#347) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#296) | 0.409 (#347) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LEM | STO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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