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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
27–1 on winners
spread MAE 7.4
31 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
McNeese
@
Alabama
|
+21.9 | 147.9 | 90% | 64–72 | ✓ |
Grambling
@
Florida
|
+10.2 | 141.9 | 79% | 62–86 | ✓ |
Saint Peter's
@
Rutgers
|
+11.8 | 135.1 | 83% | 65–75 | ✓ |
Southern Indiana
@
Marshall
|
+1.6 | 144.6 | 52% | 63–77 | ✓ |
Stony Brook
@
George Mason
|
+8.8 | 140.5 | 74% | 56–94 | ✓ |
Gardner-Webb
@
Pittsburgh
|
+10.9 | 148.3 | 81% | 64–83 | ✓ |
Buffalo
@
Notre Dame
|
+13.0 | 150.0 | 83% | 77–86 | ✓ |
Eastern Washington
@
Missouri
|
+11.1 | 147.6 | 84% | 77–84 | ✓ |
Western Michigan
@
Butler
|
+3.6 | 133.7 | 53% | 65–85 | ✓ |
UT Martin
@
North Alabama
|
+9.0 | 140.9 | 74% | 69–87 | ✓ |
Jacksonville
@
Furman
|
+10.1 | 142.7 | 83% | 69–78 | ✓ |
Florida A&M
@
Maryland
|
+25.0 | 147.1 | 91% | 53–84 | ✓ |
Winthrop
@
Virginia Tech
|
+10.4 | 147.4 | 81% | 52–58 | ✓ |
Coppin State
@
Virginia
|
+13.1 | 127.7 | 86% | 45–62 | ✓ |
Alcorn State
@
Tulane
|
+21.0 | 141.9 | 90% | 51–84 | ✓ |
Kansas City
@
Iowa State
|
— | — | — | 56–82 | — |
Yale
@
Purdue
|
+8.2 | 147.1 | 79% | 84–92 | ✓ |
Lamar
@
Texas A&M
|
— | — | — | 71–97 | — |
Northwestern State
@
Oklahoma
|
+17.6 | 146.2 | 88% | 57–73 | ✓ |
Chattanooga
@
Austin Peay
|
+11.3 | 139.6 | 87% | 61–67 | ✓ |
UNC Greensboro
@
SMU
|
+10.9 | 150.5 | 81% | 68–81 | ✓ |
Central Michigan
@
Marquette
|
+16.7 | 147.6 | 88% | 62–70 | ✓ |
Mercer
@
DePaul
|
— | — | — | 64–95 | — |
North Dakota State
@
Cal State Bakersfield
|
+10.4 | 146.1 | 84% | 81–86 | ✓ |
Idaho
@
Washington State
|
+16.4 | 150.2 | 86% | 67–90 | ✓ |
Boston University
@
UCLA
|
+21.2 | 132.5 | 89% | 40–71 | ✓ |
Pacific
@
Hawai'i
|
+5.6 | 147.4 | 64% | 66–76 | ✓ |
Villanova
@
Saint Joseph's
|
+2.5 | 141.5 | 57% | 76–83 | ✓ |
Michigan State
@
Kansas
|
-1.4 | 146.3 | 45% | 69–77 | ✗ |
Hampton
@
Providence
|
+14.7 | 130.0 | 85% | 51–60 | ✓ |
Cornell
@
La Salle
|
+12.6 | 148.0 | 85% | 77–93 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.