Come on down and meet your maker. Come on down and take a stand. "The Stand" - The Alarm
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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44–10 on winners spread MAE 9.2 56 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Norfolk State @ William & Mary +3.0 147.2 61% 73–84 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Indiana State +0.3 141.7 51% 77–72 ✗
Old Dominion @ Radford +10.8 150.7 85% 75–87 ✓
Drexel @ Temple +10.1 143.5 80% 61–69 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ South Florida +13.8 156.1 87% 69–85 ✓
Fairfield @ New Hampshire +4.1 140.0 69% 62–56 ✗
Bethune-Cookman @ Purdue Fort Wayne +7.0 141.5 76% 69–91 ✓
West Georgia @ Tennessee Tech +13.8 142.4 86% 73–76 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ NJIT -3.9 135.0 37% 68–50 ✓
Lehigh @ Columbia +17.1 149.8 90% 75–76 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Lafayette +5.6 135.0 66% 63–65 ✓
Monmouth @ Northern Illinois +10.2 143.8 85% 66–79 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Miami (OH) +8.3 149.1 78% 70–88 ✓
American University @ Siena +5.1 134.9 70% 66–74 ✓
North Carolina Central @ High Point +15.2 147.8 86% 60–76 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ George Washington +17.0 142.0 89% 80–85 ✓
Binghamton @ Fordham +6.8 140.6 76% 63–78 ✓
Tarleton State @ Florida State +17.8 140.8 90% 52–72 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ UCF +1.2 143.8 54% 94–100 ✓
Saint Francis @ Penn State +23.4 152.1 91% 62–92 ✓
UIC @ Northwestern +15.7 144.5 86% 74–83 ✓
Towson @ South Carolina +8.3 139.9 75% 54–80 ✓
North Florida @ Georgia +3.8 157.2 56% 77–90 ✓
Colgate @ Syracuse +5.7 141.8 69% 72–74 ✓
Rider @ Navy +4.9 139.5 67% 90–79 ✗
Delaware @ Iona +12.1 150.6 86% 64–58 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Clemson +11.9 149.0 81% 62–75 ✓
Texas Southern @ Georgia Tech +9.5 149.0 79% 62–81 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Mississippi State +19.7 148.7 89% 59–80 ✓
Sam Houston @ Baylor +1.5 150.8 49% 67–104 ✓
South Alabama @ Ole Miss +10.5 140.2 81% 54–64 ✓
Little Rock @ Arkansas State +7.5 148.7 77% 63–80 ✓
Cleveland State @ Valparaiso +7.5 143.8 78% 75–67 ✗
UL Monroe @ Rice +8.8 142.7 78% 50–66 ✓
Ohio @ Illinois State +12.0 143.1 86% 75–85 ✓
UTSA @ Bradley — — — 72–85 —
Prairie View A&M @ Incarnate Word +10.9 144.9 86% 81–84 ✓
Chicago State @ Texas +21.7 145.9 90% 58–105 ✓
Belmont @ Lipscomb +9.4 143.9 79% 80–79 ✗
Texas State @ TCU +12.3 135.8 84% 71–76 ✓
Jackson State @ Xavier +14.1 145.4 86% 57–94 ✓
Duke @ Kentucky +2.3 159.9 60% 72–77 ✓
Denver @ Colorado State +14.4 146.5 86% 65–74 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ New Mexico +4.7 151.0 70% 81–100 ✓
South Dakota @ Iowa +11.1 156.1 83% 77–96 ✓
Queens University @ Utah +13.5 148.3 84% 65–96 ✓
UC Riverside @ California Baptist +4.8 154.8 65% 70–69 ✗
Akron @ Saint Mary's +7.0 147.9 71% 68–87 ✓
Sacramento State @ UC San Diego +10.0 136.9 80% 54–64 ✓
Portland State @ San Diego +1.7 148.3 50% 85–76 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Stanford — — — 64–90 —
Portland @ Oregon +24.7 142.7 91% 70–80 ✓
UAlbany @ Dartmouth +8.2 142.9 75% 87–73 ✗
Louisiana Tech @ Massachusetts -1.7 152.2 40% 76–66 ✓
Wagner @ St. John's +18.9 143.4 89% 45–66 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Bellarmine +3.5 141.1 59% 71–69 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.