What's the point of robbery when nothing is worth taking? "Stand and Deliver" - Adam and the Ants
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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46–5 on winners spread MAE 8.3 51 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Charleston Southern @ Longwood +7.2 144.6 80% 78–83 ✓
Texas Tech @ Utah -1.9 148.9 47% 93–65 ✓
Houston Christian @ Lamar +11.0 133.6 88% 61–63 ✓
Louisiana @ Georgia State +1.9 139.9 58% 70–94 ✓
Youngstown State @ Purdue Fort Wayne +4.6 147.0 71% 81–90 ✓
Campbell @ UNC Wilmington +7.8 141.7 80% 69–77 ✓
Hampton @ Elon +7.4 136.5 78% 62–70 ✓
Pepperdine @ Pacific -1.9 143.8 42% 87–70 ✓
San Francisco @ Washington State +3.6 146.9 69% 82–91 ✓
Ohio @ Central Michigan +0.9 147.2 56% 57–55 ✗
Texas @ Texas A&M +5.9 138.8 73% 60–80 ✓
Delaware State @ Howard +3.1 148.8 64% 94–100 ✓
Missouri State @ Bradley +11.6 143.6 88% 60–69 ✓
Michigan @ USC -6.0 148.4 34% 85–74 ✓
UT Arlington @ Tarleton State -5.8 136.7 30% 74–77 ✗
Southern Utah @ Grand Canyon +12.0 149.2 87% 71–82 ✓
Seattle U @ California Baptist +2.7 146.4 64% 59–61 ✓
Denver @ South Dakota +7.1 160.0 78% 84–91 ✓
California @ Clemson +12.1 149.1 88% 68–80 ✓
Gonzaga @ Loyola Marymount -11.5 146.9 17% 96–68 ✓
Fresno State @ Utah State +19.5 153.5 91% 83–89 ✓
UC San Diego @ Cal State Fullerton -13.5 139.6 14% 90–51 ✓
Sam Houston @ UTEP +5.8 148.4 77% 72–81 ✓
Long Beach State @ Cal State Bakersfield +5.6 134.9 72% 65–80 ✓
UC Riverside @ UC Irvine +10.5 141.2 86% 57–81 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Portland -13.8 138.5 13% 81–58 ✓
Cal Poly @ Hawai'i +3.9 152.7 66% 55–68 ✓
Indiana @ Penn State +8.5 153.0 79% 77–71 ✗
Florida Atlantic @ East Carolina -2.2 151.4 43% 78–76 ✓
Army @ Boston University +3.9 136.9 67% 63–71 ✓
Lehigh @ Loyola Maryland +1.8 142.8 60% 74–80 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Wagner -0.1 131.1 51% 71–59 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Mercyhurst -6.4 131.0 22% 62–50 ✓
Providence @ UConn +12.2 139.9 88% 84–87 ✓
Northwestern @ Purdue +6.5 140.3 75% 61–79 ✓
Stonehill @ Saint Francis -0.0 144.5 48% 64–60 ✓
Lafayette @ Navy +0.8 137.4 52% 70–71 ✓
Holy Cross @ American University +0.9 139.8 54% 64–75 ✓
Colgate @ Bucknell +4.5 135.5 65% 60–66 ✓
Chicago State @ Long Island University +8.6 136.3 81% 39–53 ✓
Iona @ Siena +5.8 139.7 72% 74–73 ✗
Manhattan @ Rider -0.8 146.2 47% 80–79 ✓
Niagara @ Mount St. Mary's +5.9 139.8 75% 62–68 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Marist +3.2 136.5 68% 62–69 ✓
Canisius @ Sacred Heart +11.2 147.2 87% 82–99 ✓
Murray State @ Drake +9.1 130.7 81% 66–59 ✗
Kansas @ UCF -2.8 143.8 42% 99–48 ✓
Maryland @ Oregon +2.9 149.0 65% 79–83 ✓
Illinois @ Washington -9.9 151.3 18% 81–77 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Illinois State +10.0 145.7 85% 54–85 ✓
North Texas @ Memphis +10.7 139.4 85% 64–68 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.