Just tell me where it hurts and I'll tell you who to call. "Quinn the Eskimo" - Bob Dylan
← All models

Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →
41–11 on winners spread MAE 8.0 52 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Auburn @ LSU -10.3 146.7 17% 87–74 ✓
Houston @ West Virginia -6.8 123.5 24% 63–49 ✓
Wisconsin @ Maryland +4.9 151.3 70% 68–76 ✓
TCU @ Texas Tech +11.3 135.5 87% 57–71 ✓
Longwood @ Gardner-Webb +0.4 148.2 52% 87–92 ✓
UTSA @ Florida Atlantic +7.4 157.3 79% 74–94 ✓
Charlotte @ Temple +8.7 144.9 82% 89–90 ✓
Virginia @ Miami -2.1 137.9 38% 82–71 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Florida State +10.5 141.2 86% 76–66 ✗
Massachusetts @ Rhode Island +5.8 155.8 75% 82–88 ✓
Richmond @ George Washington +7.8 135.5 80% 66–75 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ George Mason +10.8 138.6 84% 53–58 ✓
Duquesne @ Saint Joseph's +8.1 140.4 79% 72–76 ✓
Fordham @ La Salle +4.9 145.9 70% 88–72 ✗
Northern Iowa @ Drake +6.4 128.4 77% 52–66 ✓
Missouri State @ Indiana State +1.9 149.1 60% 67–72 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Bucknell +4.4 140.5 69% 67–79 ✓
Navy @ Lehigh +1.8 136.9 58% 79–54 ✗
American University @ Lafayette -0.7 136.0 45% 75–68 ✓
Stetson @ North Florida +9.7 162.3 86% 100–101 ✓
North Alabama @ Queens University -1.8 148.2 43% 67–75 ✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ Jacksonville +2.8 135.1 64% 83–79 ✗
VMI @ Wofford +10.0 142.1 86% 74–67 ✗
Chattanooga @ Western Carolina -12.3 146.0 14% 84–60 ✓
East Tennessee State @ UNC Greensboro +2.7 132.2 68% 65–70 ✓
The Citadel @ Mercer +10.6 143.0 86% 46–80 ✓
North Texas @ Wichita State -5.9 135.2 25% 58–54 ✓
West Georgia @ Central Arkansas +1.3 142.3 56% 70–75 ✓
DePaul @ UConn +12.1 147.3 87% 61–72 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Kansas State +5.1 142.7 71% 57–85 ✓
UAB @ Tulsa -4.9 152.2 32% 78–68 ✓
UIC @ Bradley +10.3 149.1 84% 93–70 ✗
Murray State @ Evansville -3.4 134.6 37% 74–78 ✗
Xavier @ Creighton +5.8 141.1 74% 77–86 ✓
Arkansas State @ Southern Miss -7.8 146.0 21% 81–68 ✓
Oral Roberts @ St. Thomas +13.6 156.8 88% 71–86 ✓
Omaha @ South Dakota -0.9 164.4 46% 87–91 ✗
Alabama @ Mississippi State -0.4 170.0 52% 88–84 ✓
Texas @ Ole Miss +6.0 141.6 74% 69–72 ✓
California @ SMU +11.7 153.6 87% 65–76 ✓
Belmont @ Illinois State +2.2 152.6 62% 78–81 ✓
Rutgers @ Northwestern +5.9 145.4 73% 79–72 ✗
Saint Mary's @ Santa Clara -0.6 141.9 49% 67–54 ✓
Nevada @ Boise State +6.6 139.8 75% 56–66 ✓
UNLV @ Utah State +12.5 144.6 88% 71–76 ✓
Syracuse @ Stanford +10.4 148.7 84% 61–70 ✓
New Hampshire @ Maine +16.4 140.8 90% 46–71 ✓
Stony Brook @ Charleston +13.2 146.6 87% 74–81 ✓
Vermont @ Binghamton +0.2 131.8 48% 72–75 ✓
Ohio State @ Penn State +0.9 150.0 54% 83–64 ✗
Wright State @ Youngstown State +1.6 145.1 58% 86–88 ✓
Towson @ Delaware -0.2 144.9 46% 76–66 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.